Nurse the Hate: My Old Bassets and NFL Week 3

 

Those are my two basset hounds in their younger colorful fur.  My two bassets are old and rickety now.  Having an older dog is a bittersweet situation.  They completely know and abide by all the systems that have been established.  They have been with you for so long that even the slightest change in their personalities are perceptible.  Yet, like old cars, they are in constant need of maintenance and observation for dings and dents.  Senior dogs require patience and understanding.  My two bassets have the same ridiculous sense of confidence and swagger they have always had, but you can see their frustration with their growing list of physical ailments.  The male now requires consistent reassurance, his slightly muted personality likely from physical discomfort he can't express to me as the result of what I would guess is a disease silently ticking away inside him.  His sister has a dozen issues with her, yet is still confident in her place at the top of the hierarchy despite walking like a drunken sailor from some sort of stroke a couple years ago.  They make quite a pair and I love both of them completely.

I have always owned basset hounds.  The breed and I understand each other.  This is not a dog for everyone.  They are stubborn con artists, virtually untrainable.  As part of their long con they run on you, they are also affectionate, laid back, and funny without knowing they are the punchline.  Despite being relatively chilled out, they can be a real handful.  Having had a basset hound for 40+ years of my life, there is another constant.  Whenever you are walking the dog, no matter what age the dog is, the first question people will ask is "How old is that dog?".  Every fucking time.  

I think because the basset has a saggy face and sad expression, everyone thinks they are senior dogs even as puppies.  I don't understand why people all ask the question though.  What is it they are trying to glean from this information?  Maybe because the dog is so ridiculous looking, they are wondering "Is that what this animal is supposed to look like?".  Usually the "How old is this dog?" question is immediately followed up with "What is their life span?".  I know that this is generally asked innocently as people are trying to grasp what is happening with this odd looking dog, but it is a horribly insensitive question.  

This morning I was walking the bassets on a painfully slow walk.  It's like walking two Galapagos Tortoises.  I rarely use a leash as it is impossible for them to run away and create any drama.  If one of them should come up with a big idea to run somewhere, I am on top of them before they have made three steps.  They will stop and sniff at imperceptible patches of interest in tree lawns, oblivious of any need to keep the procession moving.  It took me 55 minutes today to walk around the block.  At one point they both decided to lay down in someone's front lawn and just observe a man loading a van.  They do what they do.

When we were almost halfway back around the block, a grandmother and her two grandkids came out to greet the bassets.  "How old are they?"  They are almost 11.  The grandmother gave me a concerned look.  "What's their lifespan?"  About 12.  "Oh.  They're old."  Now, let's flip this around.  How about if I ask the grandkids, "How old is your grandmother?"  Oh, she's 75.  "What's the normal lifespan of a grandmother?"  78.  "Ohhhh.  She's old."  I mean, c'mon lady, cut me a break.  I know these are old creaky dogs.  You don't need to say to me on a gorgeous autumn day "How's your walk going?  Did you remember how little time you probably have left with your dogs?".  I don't need that.  I have to focus on the games for God's sake and enjoy my bassets. 

I am going in strong with the Browns this week.  Make no mistake, I don't think the Browns are an elite team.  This is more about me thinking the Bears suck, and with rookie QB Justin Fields making his first start, will have trouble making long sustained drives.  The Bears longest pass play in two weeks is 22 yards.  Fields in his brief NFL career is showing a tendency to look at his primary receiver and then run.  This does not suggest great success for the passing game.  The Browns are #6 against the run,  This would concern me as a Bears fan.  Rookie QBs also love to turn the ball over, just like Fields did last week in his heroic attempt to snatch a loss from the jaws of victory when he tossed a backbreaking INT on his own 7.  If the Browns get up two score early, this could turn into a rout.  Browns -7.

There is some Whiskey Daredevil van terminology called "An Eel".  It will take too long to explain, but it has something to do with when you drive on an interstate past a serene looking farm pond, our belief that enormous 65 foot long eels lie silently in wait to swiftly consume you whole if you get sucked into wandering too close to the water's edge.  In retrospect this is an updated hillbilly version of The Sirens calling the sailors onto the rocks in Jason and the Argonauts mythology fame.  The bottom line is whatever looks too good to be true can't possibly be true.

The Arizona -7.5 line versus Jacksonville looks like an eel.  Jacksonville has all the signs of being the worst team in the league, depending on whatever the Jets do of course.  Urban Myer is already planning his possible exit to USC.  Someone must have told him that he can't recruit all the good players from other teams and then play Purdue 8 weeks a year.  Trevor Lawrence has thrown 36% of his passes that have qualified as "uncatchable passes" as per advanced football metrics.  There is no one on the roster behind Lawrence to step in to give him a moment to try and figure it out.  The Jaguars don't look like a losing team, they look uncompetitive across the board.  Meanwhile Arizona looks like a legit playoff contender.  The line is 7.5?  This has to be a trick where I get knocked out and someone cuts out my kidneys.  I know this, but I am unable to stop myself.  I am all in on Arizona -7.5.  

I am of the opinion that the Minnesota Vikings are better than their 0-2 record indicates.  I am not suggesting they are a playoff juggernaut team, but more like one of those teams that is on that "In The Hunt" graphic when they are 7-7.  Viking fans are going to be disappointed in their ugly ass purple gear.  Fuck them and fuck the Vikings.  However they are +2 at home versus the Seahawks, a team that seems to exclusively win via late game Russell Wilson theatrics.  This game will be close.  I am going to tease Minnesota up to +8 and then Miami up to +9.5.  The entire city of Las Vegas is filled with Hispanic guys in Raider gear standing line line buying Raiders -3.5 tickets, jostling in line with MMA fans and NASCAR dipshits, all of them sure Miami will lose without starter Tua.  No one is betting on Miami.  Newsflash.  Tua is terrible.  Jacoby Brissett, who is the very definition of "lackluster", might have been an upgrade.  All we need for a winner here is Brissett to play his normal game of avoiding risk and not losing by double digits.  Sunday is a good day for a sucker bet.  Minnesota +8/Miami +9.5.  

Current record:  2-4                 

     

Nurse the Hate: The Master of Wine Pursuit Part 2

 

I have been accepted into the Master of Wine program.  I have committed to this suicide mission.  There are currently only 45 Masters of Wine in the United States.  Nobody gets through this.  It is an unbelievably difficult task to pass the exams, much less gain the confidence to even sit down and attempt to pass them.  I have to somehow cram a working knowledge of agriculture, fermentation chemistry, bottling concerns, distribution factors, soil analysis, and in depth knowledge of any region that produces wine.  I will freely admit that I would stare ahead blankly if anyone currently asked me to talk about Hungarian vineyard practices, Chilean irrigation techniques or emerging wines from Georgia (the country, not the SEC Football loving state, which is a shame as I have definite opinions about The State of Georgia).  The clock has started ticking.  I will have to pass a Stage One assessment at the end of Year One that demonstrates I belong here, and if I do, a brutal series of exams to pummel me afterwards.  I very quickly went from this euphoric feeling of "Yes!  I passed the entrance exam!" to "Oh shit!  I passed the entrance exam!".  

The blind tasting of wines gets the most attention, but it is the all-encompassing theory exams that I find daunting.  Questions like "Examine the importance of temperature control at different stages for the vinification of red wine." and "When and how can hail cause damage at various stages of vine growth? What methods are most effective for preventing or responding to such damage?" are only in Stage One.  I can barely keep my lawn alive, and now I have to sound off on techniques for keeping an Argentine malbec vineyard productive after some freaky ass Mendoza area hail storm?  (Lots of hail in Argentina around Mendoza.  Who knew?)   I do like the idea of swaggering around in Argentina telling winery owners "Look, let me tell you what you're doing wrong." when they have no idea that I have patches of dead grass the size of pickup trucks in my front yard.  Yet, I am made for The Consultant Life, making quick pivots when my recommendations turn out to be complete shit.  "Yes, I know I told you to invest in hail cannons, but see you bought THE WRONG HAIL CANNONS!  That's why you lost your crop.  Hell of a thing.  Maybe we just get you some old fashioned hail nets for next year.  Great to see you by the way.  Love what you're doing out here.  Can I get a ride to the airport?".

One of the things I find daunting in this quest is that everyone I have met that is in it seems to be twice as bright as I am.  This is in stark contrast to normal life in Ohio where most people I run into seem as bright as woodland ducks.  A guy can start to feel pretty good about himself walking around in a Lorain County OH Home Depot.  It's a wake up call to find oneself in a room full of snappily dressed London wine professionals where everyone sounds like Jeremy Irons and drinks Grand Cru Burgundy at work the way I have access to Pabst draft at The Grog Shop.  There was a guy I met in Dublin early last year that went in depth on vintage strengths for Batard-Montrachets and I've never even seen one in person.  I went straight into corporate mode where I nodded knowingly and said something like "I concur".  Crisis averted.

One might ask themselves why I would put myself through something this strenuous when there is so much TV to watch and sloth to pursue.  I have embraced the idea that I am like a shark, and if I stop swimming, I will die.  If there is not consistent growth, there is erosion.  I also think I need to enjoy the ride, because that in itself will likely be the biggest payoff.  Let's be honest.  The world doesn't need another person that can hold an in-depth discussion on the techniques of making ice wine, especially since most people's relationship with wine is a decision made at a wedding reception to have "the red" or "the white" before doing a line dance to "Personal Jesus".  If the pursuit of learning for the sake of it isn't the paramount reason to launch this mission, then this mission is doomed.

As I have said before, I am going to keep going until someone stops me.  For now, the train moves forward.  Next stop, London.    

Nurse the Hate: Hate Zoom and NFL Week 2

One of the worst things that has happened in Covid Times is the proliferation of online Zoom call webinars.  Sure, there are people that will suggest that the worst thing that has happened is a million deaths globally.  Yeah, I guess that's bad.  Let me be honest, I have been able to conceptualize those into the abstract, like when a woman at a grocery store checkout line says "That's terrrrrrible!" when she is told by another woman in line that a polar bear ripped her child to ribbons in a horrific camping tragedy.  While the outer behavior is saying "That's terrrrrrible!" it's evident to even a casual onlooker that the woman is actually thinking "I'm running late to yoga, you want to wrap this story up?'.  The covid graphs are like global warming.  It's too big to comprehend, and out of my control.  I got my vaccination.  If the rest of these dopes out there are dying, that's on them.  I'm doing my best, OK?

The real fallout for me has been an unrelenting tidal wave of Zooms.  I am being forced to watch people I would never give even a moment's attention to in normal life drone on for an hour on topics they clearly have almost no grasp on.  There is an entire generation that sounds like everything they say is a question from a California high school girl.  "And we are going?  To look at this graph?"  There are some people that possibly know something that I immediately discount as being stupid because everything that comes out of their mouth has a lilting uptick in tone and cadence at the end of each sentence.  "At this point we wanttolookatdistribution?"   Everyone is feverishly trying to justify their position in life, hoping against hope that no one notices that they don't provide anything of value.  I would suggest that the worst thing most of these people could do is start talking as it exposes them as being frauds, but there is a social contract that now exists that we pretend everyone is an expert in everything.  Sci-fi movies used to show video calling as this awesome thing, and now I make a noise like "ugghhhffffggg" when I see a Zoom invite sitting on my email like an open sore.   

The one thing that strikes me in this portion of history is not so much that everyone is yelling to be heard at the same time.  It's that they don't have anything to say.  Look around you.  How many people would you trust to make a sensible decision on anything?  Fat guys with shaved heads and goatees are driving Ford F-150 pickup trucks with "Don't Tread On Me" stickers that think they are some kind of badass counterculture icons instead of roofers.  It's a great time to take advantage of morons.  People are willingly misinformed, ignorant of the past, and unwilling to question the future.  This is the absolute key to beating the NFL.  All the rubes this week are going to go in and assume whatever happened in Week 1 will continue to be the same forever.  "The Bears lost last week and I heard Andy Dalton sucks.  They will never win again.  The Bengals won last week.  They must be good.  Give me the Bengals!  Woo-hoo!"

Are the Bears good?  Of course not.  But I think it is reasonable to assume that the Bears will win seven games this year give or take a couple.  So if the Bears are going to win that many, one of them better be the Bengals at home.  Is this a lock?  No.  It's the Bears for God's sake.  But betting against the Bengals is always a good idea as they are a franchise doomed to failure and disappointment.  Chicago -2.5

I am going to combo up Pittsburgh and New England this week.  Pittsburgh beat Buffalo the way they always seem to win games.  They make defensive plays, cause turnovers, get outplayed and somehow win.  By taking Pittsburgh, I am not betting on the Steelers so much as betting AGAINST the Raiders.  Jon Gruden is the most overrated football coach of all time.  He made three terrible decisions down the stretch on Monday night, and somehow still got the victory for the Raiders.  He will make a series of bad decisions this week too.  Every dope in town thinks the Raiders are good because they beat the injury ravaged Ravens in OT.  Now the Raiders on a short week, after no doubt partying their asses off in Vegas Monday/Tuesday, need to fly to East Coast time to play a 1p against a vastly superior Pittsburgh defense that has someone to cover Waller.  These are the ugly games Pittsburgh tends to win at home.

The Jets lost to Carolina last week.  They allowed Sam Darnold to beat them.  That's not good.  Now they get the Patriots, after a game they should have won, with the greatest football mind of all time that is unusually good at beating rookie QBs who gets to game plan against this kid in his second start.  The Patriots seem like a team that is going to mirror Pittsburgh.  They will grind away, be fundamentally strong, and hang around to win late.  Once again, if we assume that the Patriots will win 9-10 this year, aren't one of those wins going to be over a Jet team that just lost to Sam Darnold?  I do not see the Patriots going to 0-2 after losing to the Jets with a rookie QB.  Pittsburgh money line, New England money line, Pittsburgh/New England parlay.  

Season record:  0-2

Nurse the Hate: Hate Dead and Company plus NFL Week 1

 

I went to see Dead and Company on Tuesday afternoon.  It comes as a shock to some people I know that I am a Deadhead, but it probably shouldn't.  The Grateful Dead simultaneously took elements of classic American music like bluegrass, country, and blues and mixed it up with jazz improvisation, psychedelic experimentation, and an overall ethos of embracing chaos.  These are all things I like, and to have them all at once in a swirling stew can be exciting, maddening, and sometimes tedious.  However, the best Grateful Dead music involves great risk taking, and failure is baked into the equation.  The band's music requires paying attention, and if you do, it can be very rewarding.

The problem with the Grateful Dead for most people is the baggage that comes along with it.  Let's face it, there's a lot of baggage there.  Twirling hippies and their half baked mysticism, parking lot vendors selling magic crystals, free range vegan grilled cheese sandwiches, patchouli, zonked out party frat boys, blind cult like devotion to the band, and the shaggy caravan of lost souls drifting around the country on the tour in their ramshackle vans and campers.  I had pretty much stopped seeing the seemingly endless Dead variations that bring their money machine tours to the outdoor shed circuit for one simple reason.  The band without Jerry Garcia isn't really that good.  It turned out I was much more of a Jerry Garcia fan than the rest of the other band members combined.  Jerry was the focal point of the band for one good reason.  He was the guy with the good ideas and sensibility that made it happen.

I decided to go last week because a couple years back I saw Dead and Company with John Mayer, and it was surprisingly good.  Mayer is a monster guitar player, though his insistence on wearing metrosexual LA action wear gives off the same vibe as when I saw Johnny Marr in leather pants playing with Modest Mouse.  "Man, that guy is really good but how the fuck did he even meet those other guys?"  It's like seeing Eddie Cochran on stage with Judas Priest or Prince jamming with the Black Crowes.  I think it's important to look at Dead and Company as a stand alone and not try to compare it with The Grateful Dead in their prime.  I mean, the Dead members are in their 70s, and Bobby Weir looks like an 1870s gold prospector, so a certain amount of latitude is necessary.   It ain't 1972. 

The incredible thing is all of the baggage of the Grateful Dead scene is exactly as it was when I left it.  There are half naked hippie girls in their 20s walking around with an acid twinkle in their eyes.  Filthy guys with dogs on rope leashes are hustling for money, drugs and tickets.  Well heeled suburbanites busted out their favorite tour shirts and escaped the office to relive their party years in all of their narcotic fueled glory.  The cottage industry of the hippie straw market is alive and well selling bootleg t-shirts, glass pipes, crystals, and food with dubious cleanliness standards.  It's all exactly the same.  It's just me and the original Dead members that got older.               

The show was OK.  The band played at slower tempo.  Mayer played his ass off, but didn't have the authority or vision of Garcia, which seemed to frustrate Weir.  Jams noodled along.  The crowd didn't care.  They loved it.  It was an oldies show, no different than a Bon Jovi tour.  Original band members on stage provided enough of a stamp of authenticity for the crowd to worship at the alter of The Grateful Dead, whatever that meant to each person individually.  It seems like the pandemic has made many people search inward, looking for meaning or sense of order.   There has been a dramatic uptick amongst people I know experimenting with yoga driven hocus pocus, daily edibles, groovy zen retreats, and organic non-GMO vegan meditation.  I know a bunch of people that technically turned into hippies but didn't even notice.  If you are going to yoga retreats, eating crackpot diets, burning sage, and believe in the restorative power of essential oils, you're a fucking hippie even if you don't listen to Phish.  It's still an odd time.  I think that many people are searching for something to believe in, to cling to after the world has turned upside down.

It doesn't have to be that difficult.  If you want something to believe in, a rock to hold onto, may I suggest Mike Zimmer.  Yes, the Vikings coach has the best against the spread winning percentage of any NFL coach, and that includes The Hoodie over Boston way.  When given the chance to take a Zimmer led team against the Bengals, a team that had rehabbing Joe Burrow throw one (1) pass in preseason, I'm taking the Vikings.  The Bengals, when faced with the undeniable need to bring in offensive line help to make sure their franchise QB doesn't get killed said "Let's draft a receiver!".  The Bengals do what the Bengals do.  I think the Vikings, who were decimated by injuries last season, are being underestimated, and Cousins plays well at 1pm.  Minnesota -3.         

I am all in on the Washington Football team, a sentence I did not expect to type this decade.  Washington managed to win the NFC East last year with Dwayne Haskins/Alex Smith/Kyle Allen and Taylor Heinicke at QB with coach Ron Rivera battling cancer.  That's not exactly a winning combination, but they somehow won enough to win the crappy NFC East.  Rivera is healthy, and they brought in Fitzmagic to play QB.  Now whatever you think of Fitz, and there is cause for concern, he is a marked improvement over any of those other 2020 QBs.  Week one they are at home against the LA Chargers, a team that has four (4) new offensive linemen.  It's very cruel that they have to play their first game against arguably the best defensive front in the NFL in Washington.  Oh, and toss in that second year QB Justin Herbert has never played an NFL road game with crowd noise and had to learn a new offense this year with the Chargers new offensive coordinator.  One more thing, the Chargers played all their games on the West Coast in preseason and this is a 1p start or 10a on their body clocks.  Washington -1. 

  

Nurse the Hate: 2021 NFL Win Total Bets

 

I have worked in the peripheral orbit of NFL Football for many years.  Though never employed directly by the team, I have sold various Cleveland Browns media schemes like regional radio networks, game spots, event sponsorship, and more “shoulder programs” than I would care to admit.  If you are a potential advertiser that would love to have a TV commercial running in a Browns game, but just don’t have the dough, there’s a decent chance that I have come up with some combination of Pregame, Coach’s Show, or thinly linked team feature.  These NFL games are the Boardwalk of the Monopoly Board of advertising.  One is required to get creative to make it work for clients with “limited budgets”. 

I have a great affection for those commercials that run during games, especially radio, that attempt to draw a parallel between some shitty product and the listeners favorite team.  There was a guy I used to work with that was the master at writing these awful commercials for inside Indians games.  He would generally do the same outline for all of them.  Start with a flimsy supposition and then just go full bore ahead.  “Most people don’t like math, but here’s some math you WILL like!  Buy any two tires at Tire Mart and get the next two tires at 50% off!” 

Now, despite the fact that there is no real proof that “most people” don’t like basic math, he goes right in with the offer.  Sure, it would have been easier to go with 25% off all 4 tires, but you are dealing with The General Public, and let’s be honest, they’re morons.  50% off two tires sounds much better to the dopes listening than 30% off four.  Still, what does this tire offer have to do with baseball?  Here comes the part where the magic of somehow tying the product in with the team.  “So, whether you are driving in runs like The Tribe, or just driving the kids home from baseball practice, you want the best tires you can get!  Tire Mart!”.  It’s just complete shit. 

The reason clients buy these campaigns is the same reason why anyone buys anything.  It makes them feel good.  I don’t know if I ever sold a sports sponsorship to someone that wasn’t a big fan.  In most cases, the client wants to get closer to the team, get special access that their money has provided them.  As a result, I have hosted VIP Training Camp outings, tours of the locker room, trips on the team plane to away games, standing on the sidelines during warmups, meet n greets with players, or anything else you can think of.  As such, I have been able to peek behind the curtain of professional sports.  I understand how it works.  There is no going back once you see how the machine works.  It is 100% a business.  It is a cold hearted, cruel business.  It takes no prisoners, and once you have been cast out of the kingdom, you are gone forever.

I was discussing my various team win bets with my associate, and he was stunned by the news of Cam Newton’s sudden cut from the Patriots.  I don’t know why this surprised him.  The Patriots would toss screaming infants off a lifeboat once they determined the kids offered no upside on the boat.  They cold bloodedly looked at Cam, the once MVP that has had his body destroyed by the game, and moved on.  That’s the way the season win total bets need to be looked at, with a cold blooded eye that forgets the past, does not romanticize the future and can only see the present.

With that in mind, I am betting against the New Orleans Saints.  Last year was the final hurrah of Drew Brees, one of the all time greats that hung on too long, like they all do (except Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson, who had their love of the game sapped from them simply by being Lions).  The Saints had a QB competition, which is what a team does when they don’t have a guy they feel comfortable with, and will look to give the job to whoever “wins” the job until they draft someone they do like next year and dump both guys.  The Saints REALLY wanted to give the starting QB job to Taysom Hill, but Jameis Winston plain outplayed him.  Now the Saints will go into 2021 with a turnover machine at QB as opposed to the guy that can’t really play the position, ready with an itchy trigger finger to swap the players out.  (Now’s the time to omit a lukewarm “who dey” Saints fans…)

The Saints win total sits at 8.5 wins, which seems reasonable for a Playoff team, especially with 17 regular season games.  However, take this under consideration…  The schedule is unbalanced this year with the NFC playing an extra away game.  On top of that, Hurricane Ida Jane just made the Saints opener at home next week impossible, so they are playing Green Bay in the neutral site of Jacksonville, where it is likely more Packer fans will be in the stands than Saint fans.  The Saints, with a huge home game impact in the Superdome with the volume of the crowd, now only play 7 of 17 games at home.  As home teams in general win 57% of the time, this is a large disadvantage, much less for a team like New Orleans and their traditional dominance at home.  No Drew Brees, no Michael Thomas, and 13 players gone from the playoff team of last year.  I think this is a team that could win 9 if Jameis limits the turnovers, so I am going at this from another direction.  With 3 potential Playoff teams from the NFC West, a healthy Vikings team, and Rodgers locked in at Green Bay, I like the bet that the Saints miss the Playoffs.  New Orleans Saints to make Playoffs/’NO” -140.    

Jacksonville, the Toledo of Florida, is a city that shouldn’t have a franchise.  It’s the Florida panhandle.  They like SEC football.  Nobody gives a shit about the Jags.  It’s why they put a swimming pool in one of the end zones, to try and trick people into thinking it’s fun to go see the Jags play.  The franchise is a mess, yet their win total of 6.5 suggests they are a slightly below average team.  There is an odd belief that Trevor Lawrence is a can’t miss/generational talent that will bring glory to Florida with the steady hand of Urban Meyer offering up wizardry in the game plan.  The Jags won one (1) game last year.  They have an over/under set at 6.5.  I think it’s asking a bit much for Lawrence to step in and improve the team by 6 wins when QB play wasn’t exactly their only weakness.  Meyer already looks like he’s soured on this job, and it’s 50/50 if he parachutes out by Thanksgiving.  Vegas has made Jacksonville a favorite in only one (1) game in 2021 in early lines.  So, they are going to pull off 6 upsets?  Jacksonville Under 6.5 wins.