Nurse the Hate: Fatherland Preparation and NFL Conference Finals

 

I am heading over to Germany soon, and have been trading emails with a number of my associates in The Fatherland.  I have always operated smoothly over there as I respect the cultural need for precision and punctuality.  There is no such thing as meeting "around 10:30".  You meet at 10:30 or 10:45.  That's it.  I remember a number of times where we played club shows that were slated to start at 8pm.  At 7:30 there is NO ONE in the club and you're thinking "Fuck, this is a disaster", but then at 7:50 the club is full like a bus just dropped off a hundred people.  That is because of a cultural set of norms where everyone knows that if a show is supposed to start at 8:00p, it is not starting at 7:59 or 8:01.  That fucking thing goes off at 8:00 on the dot.  

There was a gig we played one time where the local soccer club had a match that was supposed to be ended by the start of our set.  Something happened in the match that resulted in a bunch of extra time and it was going to run over by 30 minutes or so.  Now in the United States, the club promoter would tell one of the band members, "Hey, let's wait til the game ends and then go on when the club fills up".  It's a gray area based on the situation.  Now this German scenario was much more high stress.  First the club promoter huddled with the bar manager.  Then, after ten minutes of animated discussion, they were joined by a third club employee for even more intense discourse.  Finally, a decision reached, the promoter came over to me and leaned into my ear to say "OK.  We are going to push the show back.  We will have you go on at 8:10.".  It can take 10 minutes to find Leo/Sugar at any given time, but rather than explain that to the clearly stressed event promoter, I just said "OK" like we had just pulled off a major logistical obstacle.  

As ridiculous as that is, you have to admire an entire nation that runs with the expectation that everyone has their shit together and will do what they say they are going to do.  I don't know about you, but my daily life consists of trying to work around most of the people I deal with, none of which ever do what they say they are going to do.  The other day I was trying to get a FedEx shipment that had inexplicably stalled out for four days at the drop point.  The entire concept of "overnight" shipping is to get something from point A to B in one day, but the FedEx representative didn't seem too concerned that the package hadn't moved in days.  "What probably happened was that someone put it in the incoming box instead of outgoing.".  Now, she had decided this was the root cause of the issue despite not having talked to anyone about it, and had done nothing to see what the situation was for the delay.  She just made that shit up, and my role was to go along with it like there was some sort of factual basis for the horseshit she had trotted out.  When I suggested she needed to be more proactive as there was no reason to think this package would move again today, she said, "Well, I could call over there.  Do you want me to do that?".   No, I would prefer you don't do anything except keep my money and I just go back to hoping the package miraculously arrives. 

I can't get an overnight shipping company in the United States to even inquire to why they haven't executed their service, and in Germany they thoughtfully tell you scheduled dates of an upcoming rail strike so you can plan accordingly to be on time with alternate transportation.  The key part of being onboard with the mindset of American Exceptionalism is to ignore the glaring examples of how badly basic standards have eroded by never going anywhere outside of the United States.  "USA is the best country in the world!", says the person that has never traveled anywhere except DisneyWorld and Las Vegas.  I mean, don't get me wrong, at any given time some German can go off on you because you ordered the wrong sausage at the wrong time of day or don't know how the bakery line works, but the key is there is a system and dammit we are following it!  

I was thinking about these systems regarding the NFL Conference Championship Games today.  Home teams have gone 16-4 in the last decade.  Overs are 9-3 in the last 6 years.  Home teams are 13-7 ATS in the last decade.  Home favorites of more than 7 are 6-14 ATS.  What does any of it mean?  I dunno.  I will tell you this...  I am not going to bet on Jared Goff playing outside in a big game.  The Lions are definitely a sentimental favorite, but let's be reasonable here.  They snuck by a crappy Tampa team at home, and could have lost to the Rams at home.  This is a road game against the undeniably best team in the NFL all year.  With the exception of that weird three game losing streak, the 49ers have looked elite.  I think we can all agree that San Francisco is going to score on the Lions.  If Tampa moved the ball on you, the 49ers are going to as well.  The big question to me is how well will Detroit rise offensively.  The narrative is that this will be a high scoring, who has the ball last game.  I don't think that's going to happen.  I think SF dominates if Debo Samuel gets shot up with enough goo goo juice to play effectively.  Unless Detroit gets lucky with a bunch of high variance decisions like making risky 4th downs, turnovers going their way, etc., I think San Francisco outclasses Detroit.  San Francisco -7.   

The Ravens v Chiefs game is a minefield.  The Ravens are the better team.  They have been all year.  Lamar is the MVP, yet he's the QB I trust the least in this game.  Despite Baltimore having the better offense, better defense, better kicker and being at home, are you eager to drop money against Mahomes?  If you are like me, your Doomsday Scenario is two weeks of Taylor Swift/Travis Kelce Super Bowl hype.  I don't understand why Taylor Swift is so popular, and I can't seem to summon up the energy or empathy to embrace why others are so taken with her.  Do you want to see speculative media on how Taylor is getting into the stadium to watch the game from a luxury box perch?  I'm sick of those Kelce Brothers too, and they are hometown boys.  Mahomes wife?  Enough.  It's too much but I don't feel like I can stop it.  I'm thinking about tossing a few sheckles on Kansas City, so when the harsh reality of Super Bowl Taylor Swift Hype enters my life, I can at least count a few dollars on a win.  This is a wager based on hate and negativity.  Kansas City +4.5. 

Current record:  32-27-2    

Nurse the Hate: Wine Tasting Magic + Divisional Round Day 2

I have played in a rock band for a long time.  As a result, there are a number of people in my life that ask me about the band when they see me as their fall-back conversation topic.  I run into someone at a restaurant or grocery store or whatever, and very quickly it becomes “How’s the band?”.  It’s my “thing” to them.  It’s important to note that 95% of the time, these questions are not sincere, they are simply the way to fulfill the social contract of feigning interest in an acquaintance.  It’s like asking, “How are the kids?”, when, in fact, you couldn’t identify their kids in a police lineup.  In the case of either question being asked, the required answer is “Great!”.  No one really wants to strap in to hear about how your kids got arrested in a fentanyl sting operation, is considering joining a cult or in my case the difficulty of securing studio time for our kazillioneth record that the person asking me will never under any circumstances listen to.

I now also get a fair amount of questions about when my next wine exam is in this Master of Wine quest.  The MW is a very small little dork subculture, not that different in being Master of Cheese or a Dungeon Master really, so the protocols of test taking and the required tasks are murky to outsiders.  I’m finally at the last exam.  When people ask me about the “test”, what they generally want to know about is the Practical Exam.  This is the tasting part, where you get 12 wines poured into glasses, and you are expected to be able to identify the wine and discuss the inherent quality level in context of its place of origin.  Day 1 is a white wine flight.  Day 2 is red.  Day 3 is the dreaded “mixed bag” where it can be anything but is usually sparkling, rose, sweet and fortified wines like port, sherry, and madeira. 

The first time people see you correctly identify a wine “blind”, meaning it is sitting in a glass in front of you without any other clues, they think you are a witch.  It’s a great parlor trick.  What most people don’t understand is that it isn’t some innate ability, but rather a learned skill.  I could teach you too, if you had the patience.  Anybody can do it.  It’s referred to as the “deductive tasting method” or as I like to say, “figuring shit out by paying attention”.  I’ll show you how it works.

Let’s say you have a red wine in front of you.  It is not a deep almost black color, but rather more of a light ruby.  If you hold the glass up, you can see through it.  This suggests that it was made from a light skinned grape, not a thick skinned one as wine gets the color from the skins of the grapes.  So, this means I am already thinking about light skinned grapes like grenache, Nebbiolo, sangiovese and pinot noir as being distinct possibilities.  Now you smell the wine. 

The biggest obstacle for most people at this point is that usually no one spends the time to pay attention to details in life.  Slow down.  Concentrate for a second.  What does that liquid in the glass smell like to you?  Good wine tends to smell like multiple things at once.  Smells are usually personal too.  For example, Two Buck Chuck from Trader Joes usually smells like the gum that was in packs of baseball cards to me.  White wine from the Rhone Valley in France often smells like the juice at the bottom of a fruit bowl when you are the last one to get a crack at it at the Cancun resort breakfast buffet.  In the case of the wine in the glass, it smells like cherries, mushrooms, and the cedar closet I had in my old house.  Grenache tends to smell like strawberries, so I am beginning to suspect it’s not grenache at this point, but I’m still not going to rule it out.

Let’s taste the wine.  What I look to do first is to figure out the structure of the wine.  OK, what the hell does that mean?  Food tends to have flavors and textures that work together to make it taste good.  Like a McDonald’s cheeseburger has the fat of the beef mixed with cheese.  The pickles provide a tart lift.  The ketchup gives sweetness as does the bun.  The onions give a textural crunch.  It all works together.  Wine is the same thing.  The acid in the wine has to balance the lushness of the fruit.  Just like a good glass of orange juice should have equal parts sweet fruit and mouth watering acid, wine should have the same idea.  Red wine also has tannins, which is like the skeleton to support the flavors.  Tannins are what you feel in your gums, that drying sensation that you get in things like wine and black tea.  I want to get an idea of not only the levels of these three components but also the nature of them.  I am looking for clues.

In this case the wine has slightly elevated acid, which suggests that this wine came from a cool climate that wasn’t able to ripen the fruit to the point where the sugars in the grapes were able to overtake the acids.  This has too much acid to be grenache, so that grape is out of consideration.  The tannins are soft and it is hard to notice them at first because they have a silky quality to them instead of a fierce grip.  They really blend into the wine.  This eliminates Nebbiolo and Sangiovese because those grapes tend to be very high acid and tannins that rip your face off.  This wine gracefully moves across your palate.  There is a finesse to it, something that used to be called “feminine” but I’m not sure if you’re allowed to say that in 2024 without consulting with HR first.  I’ll have to check.  Anyway, this is probably pinot noir. 

This is when I dial into what the wine actually tastes like.  The fruit is very fresh, like fresh picked cherries, but it also has a little raspberry vibe to it.  If you pay attention, after that initial cherry taste hits you, it recedes and turns into a "savory mushroom, cedar and dried leaves on an autumn day" thing.  This also suggests a cooler climate from where the grapes came from because the nature of the fruit wasn’t black cherry, cherry cola, or baked cherries like in a pie.  The fruit doesn’t finish with a sweet sensation like a candy or soda.  This is pointing me to a cool climate in Europe somewhere because pinot noir from places like the United States, Australia, New Zealand and Chile are usually more fruit dominated instead of the finish of secondary flavors like mushrooms and leaves. 

The wine is really good.  What’s the difference between a “good” and an “ok” wine?  An “OK” wine would be a short little taste of cherry dominated fruit and then the taste would be gone pretty quickly.  Yellow Tail chardonnay has a little burst of apple candy flavor and then it's gone.  It's fine.  It's pleasant.  Then, poof!  This isn’t like that.  It’s giving complex flavors.  It tastes like one thing, and then it turns into something else, and then it is three things at once.  It’s like that candy on the Willie Wonka movie that kept changing flavors.  It is perfectly balanced between the acid, tannin and fruit.  At this point, I figure it has to be pinot noir.  We have ticked most of the boxes for that to be the grape.  This had to come from a place that makes top quality pinot noir in Europe.  That means it is probably from Burgundy in France, but you have to consider places like Baden or Pfalz in Germany, Alsace in France, or Alto Adige in Italy.  This quality is extremely high though.  The wine is concentrated with flavor but at the same time is very light and airy on the palate, a hell of a trick.  There is only one place on the planet that can consistently do that.  It’s got to be Burgundy.

Now at this point in the Master of Wine program I’m expected to be able to tell you what little village it came from in the Burgundy region, which is really splitting hairs.  This task is just a matter of immersing yourself into great tasting expensive wines, and I’m just the man for the job.  It's not magic though.  Basically, it’s like getting a fast food burger and saying, “This has that fake charcoal grill taste on it, so I know it’s Burger King.  The ketchup tastes a little weird, so I bet it’s not Heinz, so that means it’s probably from East 30^th and Carnegie because the guy that owns that franchise is always trying to cut costs by using cut rate condiments.”  In this case the wine I'm identifying is a $475 retail Domaine Faiveley Latricieres Chambertin Grand Cru 2014, a wine I could easily mistake for a Volnay Premier Cru, sort of like saying you thought it was from a very desirable street on the Upper West Side of Manhattan, not a Central Park penthouse condo on the Eastside.  

I drill at least once a week to identify wines blind.  Sometimes I do better than others.  The most important thing for you to remember is when you ask me how the MW program study is going, I am going to launch into the character of the tannins of an obscure wine from a tiny village in France while you are thinking "My God.  Why did I make the mistake to ask him that?".  What you should have asked me was about the games today.

A number of football gambling degenerates I respect love the Chiefs today.  They do not buy into the narrative that Buffalo has fixed their issues they had when they were 6-6, and that Kansas City with two extra days of rest is going to crush their dreams yet again.  I think that this is the year the Bills finally slay the dragon.  They're at home, the fanbase will be out of their minds, and Kansas City just isn't very good.  Let's go Bills.  Buffalo -2.5 

Current Record:  32-26-2

 

Nurse the Hate: Hate Hackney Diamonds and NFL Divisional Round

 

I still buy a lot of records.  Well, to be honest, I actually buy a lot of CDs.  I might be the only person keeping that format afloat, but dammit, I have old cars with CD players and no bluetooth.  I still prefer the album format to the digital playlist/streaming option.  For example, most people that listen to classic rock radio formats have no idea that an album like "Love It To Death" by Alice Cooper has more songs than just "I'm Eighteen".  You have to get in there and listen to the whole thing to see what's going on with the band.  "Exile On Main Street" is a great example.  Sure, there are singles on there like "Tumbling Dice" and "Happy", but the reason that Rolling Stones record is so great is the thing in entirety.  It's the greasy sleazy feel of the whole.  

This brings me to my latest purchase, the Rolling Stones "Hackney Diamonds".  Look, I went in with moderate expectations.  The last four or five original Rolling Stones records have been a little underwhelming to say the least, but that blues record they put out last was fucking killer.  I also feel like I might as well buy the new LP because at this point I have all of the studio records except strangely enough "Emotional Rescue" for no particular reason except I got tired of hearing Mick say "I will be your knight in shiiaaaning Ahhhhmour cumming to your eeeeeeemotiooonal resssssscewww" on the radio in the summer of 1980.  As I recall, I also unwittingly walked into a room with a friend's older sister in nothing but sensible cotton panties dry humping a fellow student to that song that August that left me a little rattled.  

I have copies of the Rolling Stones last three studio records.  I'll be honest, I would have difficulty picking out random songs on "A Bigger Bang", "Bridges To Babylon" and "Voodoo Lounge" and placing them in their correct LP.  I listened to "A Bigger Bang" a couple months ago, but I found myself thinking like most people probably do, "Why am I listening to this when I haven't listened to (insert classic period record here) in a long time?".  How was "A Bigger Bang"?  You know... it was OK.  It's like any Stones record that has been released after Exile.  There are a bunch of songs that sound like that signature two guitar Stones thing and a few where they chase trying to sound "contemporary", which is always a mistake.  There is nothing worse than when Mick tries to jump on whatever trend is happening like he's waving his hands around screaming "Hey!  Look over here!  We are still culturally relevant!  Lookit!".

Did you ever see that concert film and companion record they did with Scorcese?  "Shine A Light" I think it's called.  In the beginning there is this fake drama where the band hasn't told Scorcese what they are playing and he doesn't know how to position the cameras and it's supposed to be this dangerous rock and roll moment.  "Good God!  Those rascals haven't let anyone know what's about to happen!"  Then they do the move where they bring out the Old Bluesman in Buddy Guy for "Champagne and Reefer", the new rock guitar hero in Jack White for "Loving Cup" and the chart topping female siren in Cristina Aguilera singing along to "Live With Me".  It's the least dangerous rock show ever, especially since it is all industry biz people and their satellites making up the theater crowd.  That show was the execution of a business plan.

That's sort of what this new record is, a reason to promote yet another greatest hits package tour with obscenely priced tickets.  Yet, I'm begrudgingly going to admit, the record is pretty good.  Look, it's not "Beggar's Banquet", but that was a half century ago.  Let's cut these guys some slack.  This Stones Product, where quite a few of the songs require us to enter the willing suspension of disbelief that 80 year old Mick Jagger is out prowling around for ladies but always being done wrong.  He's tough, but you can hurt him emotionally.  I wish he would write about 80 year old famous rich guy problems, but that probably won't move units.  This is perhaps the most middle aged man album purchase I have made in a few years, and I almost feel like I need to justify the purchase by filling in some weird indie stuff I bought too.  "Hey!  A Hermanos Gutierrez disc was in that bag too!"  

I suspect this release will slide on the shelf next to "Steel Wheels" to be partially forgotten.  I still appreciate the fact that these guys went and made another full length.  They can do whatever the hell they want, and it would be much easier to just rehash "Satisfaction" every summer in football stadiums, which I guess they do, but hopefully now with "Here's one off our new album!" so the suburbanites can hit the toilets in time to get back for "Brown Sugar".  Everybody just needs to stay in their lane and do their job I guess.  I am hoping that's what happens today in the NFL.  I'm feeling pretty chalky.

That's exactly what I am expecting the Ravens to do this week.  I think the Ravens are going to push the Texans around.  The Ravens have easily been the best team in the AFC.  Despite the Texans kicking the crap out of the Browns last week, let's not forget that they stumbled into winning the shitty AFC South thanks to a Colts dropped pass and a Jacksonville meltdown.  The Ravens like to be bullies.  I am on Baltimore -10.

I think the Packers are a live dog.  If they can get a lead early, this will be a game.  If they fall behind?  Uh-oh.  I'm not sure how the Packers deal with a healthy 49ers offense.  The big question is can the Pack reliably score on San Fran.  I think if they hang in there early that they can turn it into a track meet.  Love has somehow quietly become one of the best QBs in the NFC down the stretch, and their receivers are finally relatively healthy.  As long as SF doesn't have the opportunity to rush without concern for a running play, Green Bay should be able to score some points.  SF/Green Bay OVER 50.5      

Season record:  31-25-2   

Nurse the Hate: Wild Card Weekend

What's with the word "journey"?  Every person I fucking hear talk about whatever they are doing is on a "journey".  "When I first began my wine journey..." or  "My journey at the company began when..." or "When I first started my fitness journey...".  Look...  You aren't on a "journey".  You're just into wine, or started a job, or got off the couch to workout.  Stop pretending that everyone is as enraptured by your current interest as you are at the moment.  It's like the new word that replaced "obsessed".   "Suzy is just obsessed with these jeans from Saks."  What do you mean?  Like she can't leave the house or stop looking at a pair of fucking pants she bought because it's all she can think about?  Maybe Suzy needs some goddamn mental health help.  They're just pants.  Let it go.  

I have a woman at work that uses the word "literally" all the time.  Every thought out of her head contains the word "literally".  She can't get through a story without saying it.  "I literally just walked up stairs."  It's this point of emphasis but everything apparently needs to be emphasized.  "Holy shit.  Kendra just walked up the stairs.  No... she told me that she literally just walked up the stairs.  I know!  I thought for sure that someone helped her up there because there is NO WAY someone could get up a flight of stairs, but she assured me that she literally walked up here.  Fucking blew my mind."

There's a group think that surrounds everything.  Once enough people start saying something, others grab onto it and think, "this is what we say now".  A new word or idea slips into the culture and it just takes hold.  I hate to think I might have to start referring to some clothing item as my "drip".  You never know.  One day you are standing around minding your own business and then suddenly you're telling people about your "drip".  I think it's the same thing all these talking heads start doing with their NFL Playoff predictions.  Group think on these games comes to together very swiftly.  The Browns with Flacco will roll to victory.  The Cowboys can't lose at home.  There is no way Miami can go into a cold weather game and win.  Buffalo is going to win, but by how much?  

The key is to look past the group think.  The most universal truth going into these playoffs is that Pittsburgh has NO CHANCE.  Buffalo is favored by a whopping ten points.  Buffalo beat Dallas and the Jets by ten this year.  After they clipped their offensive coordinator, they have gone to a ball control offense that keeps scoring down.  It's not a team built to generate separation.  The Steelers had that weird three game swoon in November where they looked awful (with MVP Mitch), but even with that they've only lost 4 of their 17 by more than 10.  I was hoping this game was going to go off in that horrible snowstorm with wind out the ass so I could slam the under.  Since they moved the game to Monday I will wait to see what the weather conditions look like before betting it, but I'm leaning Pittsburgh +10.

The Browns are such a Cinderella story, it's hard not to jump on board, especially since I live in Cleveland.  Things have lined up pretty well for the team getting to play the Texans again after just kicking their ass last month.  This game should be much closer as CJ Stroud appears like a legit premier starting QB, and they had to have made some defensive adjustments to prevent Cooper from getting 786 yards receiving like last game, right?  Still, the Browns should be able to pressure Stroud.  Stroud does not play well when A) pressured and B) playing against man-to-man coverage, what the Browns run about 75% of the time.  With Ward healthy for the Browns, I think that mitigates Houston downfield and they will be forced to try to grind out 12-15 play drives.  I think the Browns beat these guys in the middle of the field.  I am going to regret doing this as the Browns exist only to crush the dreams of their fans, but I'm going Cleveland -2.

There's always an upset in this round.  It could be the Bucs, but Mayfield is a physical wreck.  I am going to take a flier on the Rams.  Hear me out on this.  Sean McVeigh is going to outcoach Campbell.  That's not a prediction.  That's just how it is.  The Lions defense blows, and when the Rams have had Kyren Williams in the lineup at running back, they are an elite offense.  Williams was out for a chunk in the middle of the season, so people don't look at the stats in a Weeks 1-4 + Weeks 10-17 way.  The Rams look mediocre overall, but this version of the Rams offense is a problem for the Lions.  In a high pressure game, who do you want to run an offense through?  Super Bowl Champ Matt Stafford or Jared Goff playing in a high profile game versus the team that traded him for almost nothing that knows exactly all of his weaknesses?  I need to do the math on the moneyline, but I'm taking that or the LA Rams +3.

Miami can't beat a good team.  I don't think Kansas City is any good, but Miami is so banged up that they should have enough to beat Tua in his first playoff game in 2 degree game time temps.  They talk about how Kansas City is used to this type of weather, but it's not like these guys grew up in Missouri and run around in the woods shirtless.  What, like half of these players are from Florida or California anyway.  Did Tyrek Hill go from being able to be comfortable in the cold when he was in a red shirt to being uncomfortable in a turquoise one?  Miami doesn't have the offensive line to run the ball down KC's throat.  It's hard to see Kansas City lighting it up here but it's not enough points to go the other way.  Kansas City money line.

Season Record:  29-24-2

   

        

Nurse the Hate: Hate the News and NFL Week 18

 

I haven't been reading the news as diligently lately, mostly because it's fear mongering and tedious.  For example, I know that climate change is probably past the tipping point, but my using the recycling bin isn't going to make up for relentless Chinese construction or the clearing Amazon rain forests.  I don't need a confirmation of helplessness each morning by reading "7 Billion tons of tires set on fire in ocean by oil company" or whatever the new self destructive headline reads.  Yet, I'm becoming more interested in the next election, not because of my position on any policies really, but rather to see if my pessimistic views about the American public get confirmed.   

This is an interesting time in history as individuals can choose their own reality.  There is an enormous group of people in the United States that refuse to engage with the idea that Donald Trump tried to overthrow the election and keep power with whatever stupid ideas he and his boys came up with post election.  It's not like you even needed to pay attention or do independent research.  I mean, it was on live TV for God's sake.  You've got Trump facing 91 felonies for his various crimes.  He keeps being found guilty time and time again because, and this is easy to follow, he did all the things he's accused of.  Yet, it doesn't matter.  In my community there's a guy that drives around with enormous flags of Trump on his car equating Trump with Jesus.  That guy lives on an entirely different planet than I do.  He didn't like what he saw around him and found a world that fit his needs.  To any rational person, that guy with the flags is a kook.  He probably thinks of himself as a hero.  No one is ever the bad guy in their own story.  There is no way to convince him of what Donald Trump is, because that would destroy his whole world.    

If you would have pitched a movie script in 1990 that a cult would envelop about a third of the United States that worshipped Donald Trump, you'd get laughed out of any room before you got halfway through it.  He was a pompous clown that would be a last guest on the David Letterman Show.  He was a joke, but he was a good TV guest.  No one ever thought, "what if people didn't get the joke and forgot he was a rich kid fuck up?".   It's reminds me of a scenario with a little fella with a mustache you might have heard about.  We live in 1936 Germany, but everyone is less educated, drives monster trucks and drinks energy drinks.  As a kid I always wondered how people got duped by Hitler, but this is the same shit with different details.  I get it now.    

The Supreme Court is going to hear the case about Trump being found ineligible to be on the ballot because of the totally logical argument that he had violated his eligibility to run for office with that little coup attempt.  However, there is concern that a large part of the country will freak the fuck out if Trump can't run because they live in a world where there was no insurrection, Georgia election interference, etc.  How can you operate a system of governing the population when there is no such thing as shared reality?  The Supreme Court, not exactly thought of as a bastion of legitimacy at the moment, is in a tricky spot.  Who knows what the hell they will do, but my guess is they do what anyone in a good paying job with great benefits will do, which is "we are going to hand this hot potato to someone else and punt.  Who wants to go out for salmon?".  How this thing shakes out is anyone's guess.

Something I do have a sense of confidence in is the Ravens won't roll over for Pittsburgh today.  Baltimore is going to rest a bunch of players, but this is the Ravens.  Harbaugh plays to win preseason games.  I can't think of any reason why he won't play to knock Pittsburgh out of the Playoffs.  Frankly, they lost to the Steelers earlier this year, and they probably don't want to see them again down the road.  Hundley is a decent backup, but he's no Lamar obviously.  Still, I'd rather have him than Rudolph at QB.  The weather is supposed to be shitty.  Gimme the points at home.  Baltimore +3  

The narrative of "needing the win" to be a reason to bet a team is flimsy.  There are a bunch of teams that have a "win to get in" this week, so I reflexively want to bet against them.  The one that stands out as being almost impossible to pull the trigger on is taking Carolina +4.5 over Tampa.  If Tampa wins, they win the NFC South and Mayfield finally gets a big contract.  If they lose?  That's bad for everyone.  Still, having watched Carolina play a few times, I just can't do it.  I know I should, but I can't.  How about the Eagles?  They've lost four of the last five and now are laying points to the Giants.  If Dallas beats Washington (which I assume they will), Philadelphia is the five seed.  I'll tell you this.  If Dallas is up big at halftime, the Eagles will rest everyone that matters.  Tyrod Taylor is the best QB the Giants have had all year.  They might win outright.  Giants +4.5.  The Jaguars need to beat the Titans to get the #4 seed and host the Browns.  If they lose, they need Pittsburgh and the Raiders to win to get in as the #7.  The Jags are sorta shitty.  They've lost 4 of their last 5 ATS.  Vrabel always has his team motivated.  He's a red ass.  I'm sure they'd love to send Jacksonville home.  Tennessee +4.5.   

It's almost impossible to get past the "Buffalo is back!" narrative, despite barely getting past New England last week even with four turnovers.  The counter narrative about Miami is "it's too bad they are so injured, the dream is over".  Everyone and his brother is going to bet Buffalo.  Are we really on board with this idea that Buffalo just figured it out in the last month?  I'm looking for a devastating Josh Allen turnover to be the difference just like it's been all season.  I'm getting on Miami +2.5.

Current Record:  28-22-2