Here Cometh The Ice Man and NFL Week 4

 

I was in France last week and watched some of the NFL Sunday in a Paris sports bar.  The downside of watching NFL in a Euro Sports Bar is you have to wait for the Premier League matches to end or everyone gets (rightfully) pissed when the TV starts showing Jags v Commanders.  I like seeing what passes for American culture interpreted by another country like a sports bar.  They had wings and pizza and shit like that, but it wasn't that "this might kill you" version of a wrap.  It was more dainty.  They just don't understand one of the pillars of American culture, which is "if 1 is good, 17 is better".  A chicken wrap is fine with their little serving of chicken in it, but it can't compare with our version of two chickens, bacon, three cheeses, some kind of Ranch Fiesta Sauce and a mountain of fries.  They did their best I guess, but they need to dial up the gluttony meter.   I had a good time over there though.  I have a whole discussion of being at harvest in Chinon on my MW blog if you are so inclined here: https://doomedmwquest.blogspot.com/2025/09/harvest-in-chinon.html

I have been fortunate enough to be very well traveled.  I've been from Shang-hai to London to Berlin to Belize.  However, one of my biggest memories will always be when two unthinkable special teams plays happened almost simultaneously to allow me to lose that Rams and Packers bets.  I could not have handicapped those games any better.  For 59 minutes those games were money in my pocket... until they weren't.  Let's not mince words.  That fucking sucked some major donkey dick, if I may be so eloquent.  I am so cold, I am considering changing all of my email handles to "Ice Man@whatever.com".   I'm just going to have to "trust the process" and turn this ship around this week.  

It's fair to say up front that three weeks ago I got on Green Bay who is going to Dallas.  The market has the game as Green Bay -7 but I'm in at Green Bay -2.5. A word to the wise, you can often get on games early with weak lines a few weeks out.  The risk is if Jordan Love falls into a well and breaks his spine or something, but in this case it was so early in the season that people still thought the Cowboys would be good.  I can't imagine that Green Bay after handing that win to Cleveland last week isn't going to be focused and motivated to handle the Cowboys this week.  I'm delighted to be sitting Green Bay -2.5 though.

We all know Tennessee is bad.  Did you know that the Titans are 3-17 ATS in their last 20?  How much longer will this franchise keep this fiasco going?  17 of 20 games your team performed below expectation.  It's so bad that Houston is giving a touchdown at home to Tennessee and Houston is 0-3.  This is the first time since 1989 that an NFL team that was 0-3 was favored by a touchdown.  Dec 8th of last year is the last time Tennessee has lost by less than a touchdown.  The Titans are last in yards per play.  Houston has a Top 10 defense.  Houston can't score either but the Titans defense is terrible.  I can't see Houston, in what is a MUST WIN game for them, laying an egg here.  It's a divisional game and those can get a little weird, so I am going to tie them into another game.

The Giants, in full "we are going to all lose our jobs" panic mode are tossing Dart out to make his first start against the Chargers.  I don't know why you would do that to that kid, but this is what's happening.  I hate to bet on West Coast teams playing early games as that can often result in flat performances.  Maybe the Giants eek out a cover here, but Dart is going to be a large variance in this game.  I am going to tie these two together with Houston/LA Chargers money line parlay and take the "safe" bet that will likely bite me in the ass.    

Who knew that the Colts v Rams would be a big game in Week 4.  Daniel Jones is playing so well that he looks positively franchise worthy, confirming my suspicions that the Colts staff knows what they are doing.  The Rams look like a playoff team to me, and if not for a flukey finish would be 3-0 after that Eagles game.  This could have been a possible flat spot for LA, but I think they'll come in with a huge effort.  On the other hand, I think the Colts might be the best team in the South as long as they can keep Richardson off the field.  I think the total is too low with people thinking these defenses (which have played some shitty teams) are better than they are.  I jumped on that Over 47 as soon as I saw it, but even at 49 I like it.  Rams/Colts OVER 47.

Current record:  3-7

Futbol, Football and NFL Week 3

 

I'm on a train in France trying to make sense of this NFL slate this week despite steamrolling into the highly anticipated Paris FC v Strasbourg match, sort of the French version of a Falcons v Bears game.  It's nice to be out of the country for a break.  I looked at the paper this morning thinking about that quote I recently read that said something like "Now Americans will understand how Nazi Germany happened as one third of the nation performs cruelties on another third while the last third stands and watches".  Just for those keeping score at home on the Dictatorship board, we've got state controlled media, loss of free speech, state prosecution of political foes, scapegoating of fringe groups, masked federal police tossing people in vans, loss of due process, troops on city streets and rewards for total loyalty so there's not much left to accomplish.  Congratulations America, you are now Turkey.  Next stop?  Who knows.  The great news is that there will be a stadium filled with drunk ass Browns fans singing "Proud To Be An American" in the 4th quarter as the Browns are down 34-10.  Bread and circus baby!  

I can't do anything about my ever diminishing feeling of pride I used to have for my country, but what I can do is embrace one of our nation's highest values... gambling on NFL Football!  (Cue "Proud To Be An American"). I am getting on the Rams today versus Philadelphia.  The Eagles are probably going to be one of the four left standing at the end, but they aren't playing that well right now.  They're 2-0 so no one really thinks about how they were in a close game with Dallas that had to fight to the death with the Giants, and looked unimpressive playing a Kansas City team that finally looks like they'll have to suffer a minor rebuild.  The Rams are sneaky good.  Their problem is I can't see how they play 17 regular season games with a 37 year old QB that has a fucked up disc in his back.  Stafford will be his version of healthy today though, and that's all that matters.  I'll take McVeigh on this game to outcoach the Philly staff after their Super Bowl reshuffle.  LA Rams +3.5     

If I had to choose one team to win the NFC right now, that would be Green Bay.  It's a young team on the rise, good QB, good coach, and a disruptive pass rush.  The Browns haven't been able to move the ball convincingly on a crappy Bengals D or the Ravens coming off having Buffalo drop 40+ on them.  How does Joe Flacco, a 40 year old QB that looks like a 40 year old guy playing QB, create time crunching drives with that offensive line?  The Browns defense looks much better than the offense, but to win this game they will need to create game changing turnovers.  When faced with the option of being on the side of the Browns getting lucky or Green Bay coming in and being the better team, I'll take the latter.  I am going to pay the tax and take a point on this as insurance.  Green Bay -6.5

They say that the best bets are the ones that make you uncomfortable.  This must be a great one because I am going to take the Saints today.  Let's not mince words.  The Saints blow.  However, they do have offensive weapons who, though usually hurt, are healthy today in Olave and Kamara.  Spencer Rattler is playing like a poor man's Gardiner Minshew, not a great compliment but I'm trying here.  He's been sorta better than expected, almost a "we can maybe win with him" but certainly not a "he will make us win" guy.  Seattle is playing so conservatively as if they already have buyer's remorse on Sam Darnold.  This game should be low scoring, boring, and close.  Don't get me wrong, the Saints will end up losing but not by more than a touchdown.  New Orleans +7.5 

Current record: 3-4

History All Over Again and NFL Week 2

 

Like most everyone, I've been preoccupied with the Charlie Kirk shooting.  I'll admit that until the shooting, I only had a vague idea of who he was.  I had seen some of those "Prove Me Wrong" videos online where he slams a hammer on college kids with overly simplistic and well rehearsed bar room comebacks.  To me he was always just part of that MAGA grifter tent village that orbits around Trump looking for a buck and more clicks in the attention economy that dominates the world of 20 year olds.  Charlie Kirk seemed like one of those Dunning Krueger effect debate guys that you see in high school that smugly think they're an expert on something because they saw a couple youtube videos on a topic and wave away more nuanced deeper understanding as inconvenient.  When I was a high school sophomore, I would absolutely dominate in a classroom debate on a topic like the Death Penalty.  That shit is easy when you're thinking like a teenager.  When you gain some life experience is when you realize it's not an accident that topics like abortion, capital punishment, Middle East, etc have various pros/cons that make things much more complicated than the world of provocateur speakers like Kirk would have you believe.

Like most of our societally accepted daily national gun murders, this didn't make much sense.  As soon as it happened I thought "I wonder where they are going to find the white guy in his twenties that did this" as that is 99/100 who the shooter turns out to be.  Sure as shit, it's a 22 year old gun loving suburban kid that dressed as Trump for Halloween and spends WAYYYY too much time on the internet.  Just as predictably, our beloved leader then went on Fox News to blame "radical left extremists" to further divide and inflame the edgy population.  Now I'm not sure how you box this 22 year old Mormon that appears to be a radicalized right wing gamer kid into a hardcore left radical especially since he lives in fucking rural Utah, but that's what we are going with on this.  That means that whatever pretzel logic the Fox Viewer will need to do to spread further hate online will take about 12 hours, and we can nestle in for more shooting and killing from white suburban males.  The only way you can believe that purple hair urban baristas confused about their sexuality are going to bring the downfall of the country is to have never been inside an independent coffee shop or punk rock bar in your life.  However, every dipshit with a beard in a pickup truck and grandmas in assisted living will be convinced that everyone except the suburban white male in his twenties that pulls every trigger is somehow responsible for all crimes.    

I don't know how a suburban white guy shooting another suburban white guy will turn into ICE agents herding brown people and cross dressers into "detention centers", but that's where we are going.  "They" are going to get blamed, and you better not get lumped into being one of "them" or you're gonna get fucked.  As a guy that has read a great deal of German history from 1918-1939, I can tell you with great confidence that USA 2025 bears an uncanny resemblance to Germany in 1936 except our version is dumbed down as a "brought to you by Wal Mart/WWE/Marvel" vibe.  We are all getting used to having the military on the streets like it's no big deal.  The federal private police force ICE has a larger budget than all armies on the earth except our own and China.  Remember when we were freaking out about Iraq's army during the Gulf War?  The masked goons in ICE have a bigger budget.  The German circle of power in the 30s is eerily reminiscent of the podcasters, flunkies and tv hosts sitting atop the pedestals of power today.  The administration ignores the courts and the opposition hasn't quite grasped that the guys in power have tossed out the rulebook.  The country you grew up in is o-v-e-r.  This is a new age my friend where anything goes, and if you're not in the clique, you ain't getting paid.  It will be a short run as that comet burns across the sky, but the money is flowing and you can deny it all later.   

That leaves you with the choice to watching Rome burn OR watching the Cardinals kick the Panthers in the fucking teeth.  Me?  I'm watching that.  I am of the impression that the Panthers might be worse than everyone thought.  That weird flicker of life they had at the end of the year seems like an anomaly and not a trend.  All those player rating services like Pro Football Focus, though flawed, are in agreement that the Panthers various units all sit in the bottom 20% of every metric.  The Jaguars, who aren't exactly elite, handled the Panthers easily.  The Cardinals just beat the Saints on the road, so why won't they smack the Panthers around in Arizona?  Bad teams don't win on the road.  Arizona -6.

In Week 2 I like to look for teams that I know are good that lost in Week 1.  Good teams usually don't  start 0-2.  KC is 0-1 but I'm not sprinting to the window to bet them against the Eagles.  This could be the fall off the cliff year for Kansas City.  Baltimore lost to Buffalo, but let's be honest... We know the Ravens are legit.  You have to like them against a Browns team that is probably better than national opinion thinks they are, or at least until they put in a rookie QB.  I have some concerns about the point spread on that Ravens game because the Browns defense might be for real, and they know how to play Lamar.  In the last four years that Browns/Ravens series is 4-4.  I just can't see the Ravens losing another game after that heartbreaking loss to Buffalo.  The Browns offense is NOT the Bills offense, and then I saw a Browns safety poke the Bear and say Derrick Henry wasn't hard to tackle.  I don't know why you would do that.  I want to tie that game into a parlay with another 0-1 team.  I'm thinking Lions.  Detroit might not be as good as last year, but they didn't disintegrate after being 15-2.  The Packers look like an elite team at this point so that loss in Green Bay isn't terrible.   Baltimore/Detroit money line parlay.

Let's be honest though...  The Packers made the Lions look bad last week.  Let's also face another fact.  The Bears are NOT the Packers.  I have to think Dan Campbell has the boys all whipped up and ready for action in the home opener.  I think this Lions team is not as good as last year, and the schedule is very challenging.  Still, they should be a playoff team.  Monday Night the Bears looked like... well... the Bears.  This doesn't look like a team that goes on the road and beats good teams.  They look like a team that beats up on the Panthers and the Titans and the Giants.  Detroit-6.  

Current Record:  1-3    

Test Results and NFL Week 1

 

I get my Master of Wine exam results at the end of next week.  There are three possible results.  Result 1. I passed the exam.  This is not going to happen as I know many areas that were not up to par in my answers.  I'm sorry, but I didn't know enough about wind impact in farming.  That's on me.  Result 2. I passed an area or two across three tasting exams and five essay sections.  This is what I'm hoping for as I can then really focus on filling in on my shortcomings and have some confidence moving forward.  That means I can try again next June.  Result 3.  I failed completely and am excommunicated from the program.  I don't think I did that poorly, but the education committee has a well documented history of not liking how I write (i.e. not like an English University student) and depending on who graded what, you can get totally lit up.  If that happens I could get booted from the program and then have to wait two years to re-apply to put myself into the meat grinder once again.  Thus, not knowing what scenario I am in has me struggling to stay motivated to study fermentation chemistry details and grape farming practices in volcanic soils in the Greek Isles.  I'm treading intellectual water right now and I don't like it.  

On the other hand, it feels like a year ago as to when I took that exam so I'm sort of done with sweating about it.  I keep forgetting that the results are coming next week until reminded by others.  That exam is something "Old Greg" did.  "New Greg" is doing Cowslingers practice and getting ready to harvest some grapes in France.  I have a morbid curiosity as to what the result is, but I'm not waking up in the middle of the night freaking out because I can't remember what grapes are used in Sicilian wines.  Whatever happens is going to happen and I'll react accordingly.  Just let me know what the deal is so I can plan what I am going to do for the next 9 months.  This MW quest is essentially a solo challenge with minimal tangible reward that is almost impossible to achieve, especially so if you don't reside in the waters of academia in the UK.  There was one new MW named this summer, and it was a woman that is a "multi sensory flavor perception" professor at the University of Copenhagen who got a PHD from Oxford, a Bachelors in computer science at CalTech, a Masters from MIT ands was the Captain of the Oxford Blind Wine Tasting Society.  By contrast, I went to Kent State, hung out with guys named Apeman/Jimmy Jazz/Bag Man, and later sold media sponsorships to Tough Man Contests and strip bars.  My smarts are a bit more street than the latest MW I'd reckon, but much less useful in this application.

I will tell you this... The Oxford Blind Wine Tasting Society can zero in on a Burgundy vintage, but I'll bet they can't get you a winner on Sunday.  It's time to get this season going, and I'm fresh off hitting that Dallas v Philly UNDER last night so I'm feeling good.  My first step is to leap right into dangerous waters and take the Cleveland Browns +6 over Cincinnati.  Look, we all agree that the Browns are not going to win a bunch of games this year.  I think we can also agree that the team will be much better early in the season than late.  For the next 6-7 games barring injury, Joe Flacco is going to try to be competitive and provide an example for the two shitty rookie QBs looking on before the team hands the keys to them to "see what they've got".  Spoiler alert, what they've got are a couple potential backup QBs that are going to look terrible in the windy Nov/Dec portion of the schedule.  There's no need to worry about that now though.  This is a weekly game we are playing, and we just need the Browns to stay close.  Divisional home underdogs cover these games, especially in Week 1.  If it makes you nervous, chances are that it's a good bet.  No guts, no glory.  Cleveland +6

I have the same mindset with Atlanta at home +2.5 over Tampa.  When I look at Tampa and Atlanta, I see pretty much the same team.  They would both have losing records but are fortunate enough to play in the NFC South so somebody has got to win the division.  Tampa got all the good breaks last year so that means it should swing Atlanta's way this year.  Cousins killed Atlanta's season after he hurt his shoulder.  I think he threw 4 backbreaking Q4 interceptions to lead Atlanta to losses before he got benched for Pennix last season.  Pennix came in, looked at least better than Cousins did, and they won some games.  Divisional game at home with Tampa having two O line injuries?  Why not Atlanta?  Atlanta beat Tampa twice last year with Cousins.  I think they can do it again at home with Pennix and points.  Atlanta +2.5

Let's go for a third...  I'm on Seattle +1.5 at home vs the 49ers.  The narrative on SF is they are "back" after an injury plagued 2024, and with an easy schedule will breeze back to the playoffs.  Seattle dumped out on Geno for Sam Darnold, which sort of seems like saying "I traded in my Hyundai for a Kia" horizontal change, but maybe they know something we don't.  They sure knew that Russell Wilson was d-u-n done before the Broncos did (though I do have some concerns that their old coach Pete Carroll brought Geno into the Raiders building ASAP).  The Niners are starting the year with a bunch of injuries.  All their playmakers except an increasingly rickety Kittle are out or on the injury report.  McCaffrey having a calf injury before Week 1 certainly doesn't inspire confidence.  I am looking for a boring Seahawks team to win a close game at home.  Seattle +2.5     

Here's a concept for you.  Teams with new QBs and new offensive coordinators don't score a lot of points in Week 1.  With this in mind, I was going to go UNDER on the Steelers v Jets game, but instead just jumped on the Jets team total.  I'm getting the Steelers defense playing against Justin Fields who they practiced against all last year with his new OC calling the plays at a game at Heinz Field.  As someone once wisely said, "The Jets Never Cover The Spread".  Mike Tomlin needs a win out of the gate, as does Aaron Rodgers.  I think they dial it up and come with 100% focus at the Jets.  No better time for Jets fans to be disappointed than fresh out of the gate in Week 1.  Jets Under 17.5