Advertising Secrets and Giants!

When I worked in advertising, one of the biggest hurdles that I think the industry had in creating effective ads was in overestimating the intelligence of the audience.  Most of these advertising jobs are filled with college graduates.  I mean, I'm not saying a bunch of Rhodes Scholars but "college graduates" like somehow they made their way out of Kent State or Bowling Green or somewhere similar.  A roomful of people that work in advertising is not a group that will stun you with academic insight or creative problem solving, but know at least something.  I think the problem is when you are surrounded by your peer group, regardless if that is a bunch of day laborers or genetic scientists, you make the assumption that everyone you come in contact with is fairly similar to you and your people.  This is not true by any stretch of the imagination.  Let's take a car ad for example...

I used to do a reasonable amount of automotive ads for people, or at least tried to along the way.  The auto dealer would tell you "We've got this zero percent financing incentive and a $2500 rebate plan from the factory we need to advertise."  Then you'd run the stereotypical car ad with stock footage of the car in question driving down the picturesque road with the announcer saying something like "Take your choice of zero percent financing options or $2500 rebate to drive today!" as if that would get people excited.  Those schedules usually didn't work very well.  You know why?  Because the general population doesn't know what the fuck a rebate is or understand how the interest rate impacts the price.  The general public doesn't know anything.  The only thing almost anyone you look at in a grocery store understands is "2 for 1" or "$200 a month".  That's it.  They can't do the math on what 25% of 100 is much less figure out how much money they'd save at 0% versus 8%.  As far as problem solving ability it goes fish<goat<average Lorain County resident<squirrel in that order.  I am serious.  Randomly ask someone in a public place how much 15% of 80 is, or who the United States fought in WW2, or what states border Ohio... You'll be stunned at who doesn't know the correct answers.

I sit and listen to people talk in public spaces.  It's really disheartening.  I have been pouring wine to people in weird beverage store sampling events lately.  Let me tell you something.  It's almost impossible to simplify something too much for an average person to understand.  Like if I tell someone "it's hot where the grapes come from so they get very ripe because it's from Southern France", almost none of them can find France on a map much less know that there would be climate differences in different parts of the country.  You can't use the word "climate" because they don't know what that means.  There is no way in hell you can talk about tariffs impacting store prices because they don't know what a tariff is beyond having something to do with money.  A lot of times people nod their heads along like they understand something, but you know they have no fucking idea of what you're saying.  The problem is you already broke the conversation down so a 10 year old could get it, and there's no way to speak even more simply.  So when you think about current events, how in God's name can we expect most people in the country to understand how the oil market works, or why the Save American Act is voter repression, or how you can't just leave Iran as the "winner" because you decided to make a statement on social media.  Fucking A, it's a grim time.

I watched this documentary on PBS the other night called "Hard Hat Riot" which was about the 1970 riots when construction workers beat the crap out of college anti war protesters in NYC.  It's interesting how similar the man-on-the-street TV interviews sounded to present day as the construction workers were pissed off because they had this black/white view of "America" that they felt the protesters were desecrating.  There is a slim difference between the "America: Love It Or Leave It" 1970 construction worker and the 2026 flag decal in the window pickup driver with the beard "Don't Tread On Me" guy today.  Both of them had this "don't tell me something I don't want to hear, and if you step on that flag I'm gonna beat your ass" sensibility that is timeless in America.  In their defense, the 1970s hippie movement that waved Viet Cong flags as they occupied Columbia University buildings is as annoying and naive as the "Defund The Police/Black Lives Matter" suburban liberals of today, so I get why they wanted to knock their heads in.  It's the same cycle over and over, and because no one reads any history, we repeat it all over again.  The worst thing about getting older is seeing the same movie over and over with people telling you "you just don't understand the plot" when you know goddamn well how it ends.  I recommend that documentary though.  It's time better spent than watching reality tv shows.

Thank God baseball is about ready to begin.  I could really use that daily distraction of the endless regular season to zero in on for awhile.  I had been looking for another team to bet on the over/under but haven't been sold on one like that Pirates bet, which the Pirates being the Pirates is probably doomed.  I am feeling a little bullish on the Giants this year but the win total of 80.5 is probably right on target.  I don't see an advantage anyway as once you get past the Giants first two starters (Webb/Ray) anything can happen.  That's when I saw an odd little head-to-head bet sitting there:  More wins, Giants or Guardians?  Now that's intriguing!

I'll give you a quick overview on the Giants.  Two solid starters, injury prone Tyler Mahle #3, injury prone Adrian Houser #4, and maybe Landen Roupp?  This is where the Giants get into their version of "Well, if that guy stays healthy and that guy can start 18-20 games this year, they should be OK".  Realistically two of those five starters will get hurt and some AAA guys that are shaky as shit will pitch more often than you'd hoped.  As far as the starting lineup, they've done that move some other teams have done by making the infield the offensive focus and then put fleet footed contact hitters in the outfield.  Devers/Adames are a solid power hitting combo.  Chapman has pop at third.  Arraez is a former batting champion at second.  That's a really good infield offensively.  The outfield?  Eh...  Heliot Ramos is decent in left.  Jung Ho Lee in center hasn't been what they'd thought, so Bader probably plays a lot in center with Will Brennan platooning with Lee in right.  It's a "buncha guys".  Still, this is a team that can score some runs.  I think the everyday lineup is good enough that 85 wins is a reasonable expectation and falling below 78 would be a disaster.

The Guardians are what they always are, aren't they?  Pretty good pitching with Jose Ramirez getting some help from Steven Kwan and then 7 other guys floundering around.  That is the game plan.  They were a shocking playoff team last year with that Tigers collapse plus some of the luckiest swings of fortune possible driving the bus.  The assumption is Bibee/Williams/Cecconi will be really good because their young pitching is ALWAYS good.  The team didn't add shit in the offseason and are either confident in their young players developing or are just talking shit to avoid any bad contracts across the inevitable 2027 labor dispute.  I think Manzardo becomes a reliable power hitter with a low average.  I sort of believe in Rocchio taking another step too.  Arias is a utility guy getting too many at bats until Bazzana gets called up full time.  I mean, can he possibly give you less than Arias?  Delauter seems like he's doomed to be injured all the time, but at least there's hope there.  Kayfus or Valera in RF is a daydream.  Rys Hoskins is a professional hitter, so he's going to mess up those other guy's destined failure in right by stealing their potential at bats as DH.  Hoskins isn't great, but he's better than what they've got.  Cleveland is at 79.5 wins on the line right now.  This looks like a shit lineup, but it ALWAYS LOOKS LIKE A SHIT LINEUP and then they somehow win 86 games.  I think luck catches up to them this year and they finish third in the Central behind Detroit/Kansas City.  The Guardians have way too much of that "well if ALL the young players develop at the same time AND none of the starters get hurt AND Hoskins plays well AND the bullpen comes together AND Jose doesn't get hurt at any point in the year, they could be OK.  I am going to do the following... Giants More Wins Than Cleveland.  I am also going to see how Cleveland starts the season with their brutal first two weeks.  The Guardians start @Seattle (4 games), @ Dodgers (3 games), Cubs (3 games), Kansas City (3 games) @ Atlanta (3 games).  If they start 6-10 or so, that win total will move off the 79.5 to 78/77 and I am going to bet Guardians OVER 78 as a hedge.  

Let's play ball.        

     

Play Ball!

 

I was going to write something about how an 80-year-old man in orange pancake makeup and a trucker hat announced he decided to take the United States to war with Iran for reasons only he knows, but I’m tired.  It seems like everyone else is too.  There are some engaged people around who look at this turn of events and wonder how much grift those Congress members are cut in on to abdicate their responsibility to their stated purpose and to the people they allegedly represent.  There aren’t that many though.  Ultimately, most people I observe are wondering who the Browns are going to have play QB and what’s going on with Savannah Guthrie’s mom.  (Probably Watson and she’s dead.).  We are all on this ride and nobody is going to do anything about it.  It seems like a tough break for people living in Iran to have million dollar US missiles drop on their heads killing their loved ones, but an old man in Florida needs a distraction to get your attention off the fact that even though God Knows How Many “justice” department employees scrubbed those Epstein documents, there’s too much to get totally clean.  The Old Man had sex with teenage girls and who knows what else, and nobody is going to find out what happened while he’s alive.  If a whole bunch of strangers need to die, that’s a cost he doesn’t mind.  Nobody is going to do anything about any of it, so let’s talk baseball.   

After much consideration, I am on the Pirates.  I am not a voice in the wilderness on this either.  There is a growing drumbeat pointing to the Pirates as a team to have playoff expectations.  I knew I was in trouble when I heard a guy on the Bill Simmons podcast enthusiastically telling listeners that the Pirates had the horses to make a playoff run.  I found a “Pirates 75+ wins -120” on Draft Kings that I really liked as the win total has slowly drifted up to 78.  Let’s be honest.  The Pirates are still the Pirates.  Even their podcast in the “Locked In” network closes with the tagline “We care about the Pirates because someone has to”.  So why am I on them?

First off, they still have a couple years left on Skenes who is either #1 or #1A behind Skubal as the best pitcher in baseball.  The Pirates last year scored remarkably few runs for Skenes and consequently threw away killer start after killer start.  That has to regress back to the mean, and I think that’s good for 4-5 wins.  Secondly, their lineup in 2025 really sucked.  They had two legit hitters on the team and what Krusty and I refer to as “A bunch of guys”.  These are the kind of instantly forgettable players that drift through MLB for a few years and presumably return home to become high school gym teachers/baseball coaches.  

I used to have season tickets with the Indians.  Note, I did not say “Guardians” not because I am a stubborn old white man that for some reason refuses to the societal shift that dictated an entertainment vehicle was absorbing negative PR because their corporate logo was a racist cartoon caricature of a Native American.  I said it because I bought “Indians” tickets and this was 2001.  It was a simpler time when Bill Selby played 120 games a year patrolling the outfield and the team traded away legit players whenever they had to give them market value contracts.  Ah, there is nothing like roasting in the sun on a Sunday afternoon watching a doomed team play the Royals at home in a half empty stadium to hear the PA announcer say “Bill………Selby….”.  The echo of the half empty stadium and smattering of half hearted applause told you everything you needed to know.  When Bill Selby or “Some Guy” came to bat, nothing was likely to happen.  That was the Pirates last year.

So, in Pittsburgh, they must have realized that they were going to squander the best pitcher in baseball, so they went out and signed some players.  Now, let’s temper our enthusiasm.  They signed guys like Ryan O’Hearn who the Padres rented for a few months from the Orioles and said, “Ehhh we’re good”.  Still, Rhino (seems like that should be his nickname) hit 17 HRs and 63 RBIs last year, and in Pittsburgh that means he’s playing everyday and in the meat of the order.  They also signed Ozuna which caught me by surprise.  I was thinking “Shit!  They signed Ozuna?” until I looked him up and found out he was 33 years old (allegedly) and hit about .220 last year.  Still, he’s good for 25 home runs if he stays healthy, and again, it’s better than what they had.  While these guys aren’t going to set the league on fire, they are legitimate MLB players.  For Pittsburgh, that’s something rare.

The other big news is that they have Konor Griffin, the no-doubt-about-it #1 offensive prospect in baseball.  He’s a shortstop which will allow them to move Cruz out to the outfield and Griffin should become their best player fairly rapidly.  There is the legit chance that he comes in and struggles.  He’s only 19 and has less than 200 minor league at bats after all.  Still, every single thing you read about this kid is “Mike Trout” comparisons.  If he can have a fast start, the Pirates are legit.  Dude had two HRs in a minor league game last week, so I’m optimistic.  Look, if we’re being honest, all he has to do is be better than Nick Gonzales and it’s a win.  It’s not exactly a tall order.

The major concerns are the bullpen and starters 3/4/5.  They all look like “some guys”.  For some reason the Pittsburgh sports media is VERY concerned about what they are going to do with #2 starter Mitch Keller who on paper doesn’t look any different than their next two starters in the rotation.  If Keller came to Cleveland, he’d be the #4 and it’s not like the Guardians have Paul Skenes sitting at #1.  The bottom line on that staff seems like it’s Skenes and a buncha guys.  That’s fine.  They spend a whole summer playing the Reds, Cardinals, Marlins, Rockies, Dbacks, Nationals.  It’s not the Dodgers and Cubs every weekend.  If Skenes stays healthy, and there’s no reason to think he won’t, they’ll be OK.  The bullpen?  Who the fuck knows.  My equation is 71 wins last year should be more than 74 wins this year with Skenes alone, but toss in the everyday player additions, and I think they are scuffling for a Wild Card spot around Labor Day.  Pirates 75+ wins.