Sunday, November 30, 2008

Nurse the Hate: Early 5 Star Locks!!!

Here's a couple quick 5 Star Locks... (Alright...maybe a couple desperate grabs...)

Cleveland +5: As I have always said, the NFL is all about being contrary to the gambling public. Those giant casinos weren't built in Vegas because people know how to win. No my friends, these are built because people are generally losers. At this writing 81% of the public are on the Colts today. Why? Because the Browns have collapsed, Derek Anderson is going out there to over/under throw everybody, the Browns defense can't stop anybody, and the Colts have seemingly "kicked it in". Will the Browns win? No. Will the Colts cover five? Against all common sense, I'm taking the points.

Green Bay -3: Carolina keeps winning despite looking very sketchy. But here's some news you can use. Carolina is 2-5 ATS as a small underdog of 3.5 or less. Add into the mix the Panthers have lost 3 of their last 4 on the road, with the only win being a tight game vs the hapless Raiders. Meanwhile, the Pack is 12-5 as a favorite of 3 or less at home, and just crushed the Bears and Colts in their last two home games. The only thing that gives me pause is the short week after their MNF ass kicking by the Saints.

Bills/SF over 42: Both of these teams are questionable at best. However, San Fran does score points and more importantly they give up plenty. In their last 4 road games they've given up an average of 31 points. Seattle dropped 34 on them, and Philly somehow scored 40. That means Buffalo's shitty offense should get 28 points+ today. (Right?) You think San Fran can score two touchdowns today? I do. I'll take the over.


At November 30, 2008 at 9:00:00 PM EST , Blogger Greg Miller said...

Two big late locks just in... Get on Pittsburgh and Atl as underdogs. If I had any sack, I'd take 'em on the money line!


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