Saturday, January 17, 2009

Nurse the Hate: Hate the Overthink

I just have a minute, so here's a quick post about tomorrow's action. What did we learn from last week's NFL wagering? I think it is evident that...

1) The Carolina Panthers and the rest of America has learned that you cannot win with Jake Delomme. If he's handing the ball off, all is well. If he has to throw it around the field? Catastrophe. Time for a new QB in Carolina...

2) As I face the cold harsh light of reality, I cannot deny I was caught up in the home town fervor of San Diego. You see, last weekend I was in San Diego and drank the Kool-Ade (as it were). Everyone else thought that this warm weather 9-7 team would go into Pittsburgh and win in the snow, so I jumped on board. That was really stupid.

3) The Ravens defense is not quite as good as advertised. For two straight weeks teams have moved the ball successfully on Baltimore, but the Ravens were fortunate enough to get big turnovers to dodge the bullet. Now Rolle and Suggs are hurt. That's not good. Pittsburgh will score on Baltimore tomorrow.

4) Pittsburgh keeps getting better and better every week. They have the look of a Super Bowl champion.

5) Philadelphia looks like last year's NY Giants, as they got on a roll at the right time. They've got a great D, and McNabb looks as good as he's ever looked right now. But for some reason, I think the wheels are going to come off. You don't tie the Bengals and win the NFC.

So, how do we play it this weekend? Let's not overthink this thing. Let's go with what got us here. Here's what I am going to do...

Take Pittsburgh minus the points. I cannot see how Baltimore is going to score. They have no running game at all right now, and their only receiver has an arm being held on by Krazy Glue and Spackle. Also, I can't imagine a rookie QB going into Pittsburgh in January and winning the AFC Championship game. It's been a helluva run for the Ravens, but they are too banged up and frankly, not as good as Pittsburgh.

Every single person you talk to, hear on the radio, and see on TV has already put this in the "win" column for the Eagles. When I hear that, I go the other way. I am taking the Arizona Cardinals on the money line to win outright. Even I am shocked as I write this. The Cardinals looked awful down the stretch. They didn't beat any good teams all year. However, they look as hot as Philly right now. Fitzgerald is playing out of his mind right, and Warner looks awesome. Incredibly, Arizona is playing defense too. The Cardinals are tough at home, and who doesn't love a home dog? At +160, I see no reason why not.

Quick aside...I would take an aggressive stance on Butler -3 and Wisconsin-Milwaukee +3 this afternoon. The Horizon League is something that the Miller Brothers have been following, and this looks like a great play.


At January 19, 2009 at 9:02:00 AM EST , Blogger Greg Miller said...

4-0 over the weekend. It seems impossible that anyone doubts me. It's as if I am giving you people blank checks...


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