Nurse the Hate: Feed The Lion and NFL Week 12

 

I have returned from Las Vegas, unexpectedly flush with cash after a wild run on the roulette wheel in New York New York, a place where I have always avoided playing anything as all the table game rules are made to pound it up your ass with a stick.  I feel bad when I see Wal Mart Families wandering around in the casino like glazed eyed sheep in variations of "America #1" garb.  There is a healthy cross section of the country that likes to vacation in Confrontational Fashion like "Let's Go Brandon" t-shirts and redneck comedy versions of "Fuck You I like Guns and Hate Other People" hats.  While these people are quite certain about their belief system (and want to make sure you know too), they are not so certain in their math as they eagerly sit at $15 a hand Blackjack tables with 6-5 blackjack payouts, dealers hitting soft 17s, no splits on anything but aces, etc.  They have NO CHANCE at winning as they hand over their monthly wage while slurping down novelty one gallon booze slurpees.  

The casino industry figured out that most of America is too stupid to know when the deck is completely stacked against them.  All of the big strip casinos shove it up their customers ass, and the patrons are only too willingly to spread their cheeks with a smile.  The only chance anyone has in there is on certain bets in the sports book, a legit craps table and traditional rules blackjack.  Roulette is a sucker game, but back in a corner I saw one where in exchange for playing $25 inside. there was only one green zero.  I hit four numbers in about 45 minutes, and that shit adds up quick.  I cashed out, and a hush fell over the hillbillies when they saw the green $500 chips coming my way.  See you creeps later.  I gotta go feed the Lion.

The phrase "go feed the lion" was used on me by Krusty, who suggested I needed to pad my dwindling account over at the MGM Sportsbook.  He was not wrong as I have had my worst run on NFL gambling in over a decade.  The league is so unpredictable that in any given moment everything you know is wrong.  I am not clear on which teams are even "good" right now.  Green Bay, Tampa, and Arizona?  I know Detroit, Jacksonville, Houston, and the Jets are bad.  Everyone else is in that muck of confusion.  I am certain about one thing.  Baker Mayfield is incapable of throwing the ball more than 15 yards with any confidence.  This is going to be a problem as the Browns face all the teams in The Muck down the stretch.

I am not wagering on Baltimore per se, but against Mayfield.  Mayfield, in what might be the worst business decision of all time, has continued to play while injured and brought his status as a franchise quarterback into debate.  He went from a slam dunk $40 million a year for 8 years to $18 million dollar one year option deal as he keeps trotting out there to highlight his shortcomings.  The Ravens are better than the Browns, consistently finding ways to win.  To play a game against a team that has to play on a consistent 15 yard field is a huge advantage.  Despite all the swirling underground rumors about Lamar Jackson, I am taking a firm position on Baltimore money line.    

I am taking Atlanta today, who is not quite in the "Shit Team Four", but is knocking on the door.  Anytime you can bet against Urban Myer/Trevor Lawrence/Jacksonville and give less than a field goal, you have my attention.  Atlanta is coming off a shockingly embarrassing loss to New England (who suddenly looks elite), and I like to take teams after they have been shamed on a national stage.  Jacksonville is really, really bad.  Atlanta only has one "really" next to their "bad".  Atlanta -2

Remember two weeks ago when we all thought the Bengals were the new elite team in the AFC North?  That seems like a lifetime ago, and in the NFL, it is.  This Sunday they play Pittsburgh at home, and are giving the Steelers 3.5.  Pittsburgh should be awful.  They have no offense.  Roethlesberger looks about as athletic as I do.  Yet, here they are right in the mix as usual competing for the division.  The Steelers somehow always find a way, the exact opposite of the Browns, who almost always don't find a way.  I love Pittsburgh in those games where they have been counted out.  The Browns showed that defensive pressure takes a massive toll on what the Bengals want to do on offense, and the Steelers (as always) will bring pressure.  That extra .5 on this spread put me over.  Pittsburgh +3.5    

Season Record:  17-25