Low Involvement NFL Week 2

 

I was watching the Presidential Debate this week.  I don't know if you watched it, but if you didn't, you probably should.  I remember in the past when these debates were on and one of the old men would say something like "We need less taxes so we can stimulate the economy!" and then the other old guy would say "We need to get back to manufacturing stuff in America!" and then we'd all talk amongst ourselves at which of these obviously smart old guys we should vote for.  The two choices were serious people.  People with experience and knowledge.  George Bush, Bob Dole, John Kerry, Al Gore...  You had a sense "that guy knows more than me".  Boy, have times changed.

Now it's sort of more like a reality TV show where we are all in for the ride.  One is an obviously polished white collar politician, and has some experience in the Senate.  Maybe not as much as you'd have liked in 1984, but now you'll take what you can get.  The other candidate is of great concern.  You've this really old man in orange pancake makeup saying crazy shit with no foundation in any kind of facts, the kind of a guy that most small town bars have sitting down at the end.  In the small town bars, everyone in town sorta laughs at him and says, "Well, that's just Otis.  Just ignore him.  He's crazy but he'll go home around 9."  This is the same as that situation, except in our case 45% of the people in the bar are thinking "We should give Otis nuclear weapons and all of our PIN codes to our bank accounts!".  

Trump is unfit to run an Olive Garden much less the United States.  It's hard to fathom how anyone that has seen him speak publicly for more than 30 seconds doesn't think to themselves, "Something is wrong with this Old Man.  Why does anyone think it's a good idea for him to be in charge of anything?".  I then read something that helped explain some of his core support, a large group called "Low Involvement Voters".  This means "people that don't pay attention to anything".  Like when Trump starts saying he's going to put tariffs on everything coming into the country, that sounds really good if you don't know what "a tariff" is.  Hey dipshit, if the person importing olive oil has to pay an extra $1 per bottle in tax to get it to his warehouse, who do you think is going to eat that $1?  His margins are the same, so that $6 olive oil is now $7 olive oil coming to you.  

"Low involvement people" are not great news for the rest of us that can see clearly that Haitians aren't eating people's pets, no one is a Communist, no one is killing newborn babies, and when someone says they have "a concept of a plan", they don't understand the complexity of the question much less have an answer.  Check out this stat...  White voters without a four-year college degree are almost twice as likely to say they’d vote Trump (63%) than to say they’d vote Harris (34%).  These are the same people that thought Mexico was going to pay for a wall.  Fucking A.  A third of the country are morons and we have to hope enough of the other people with a shred of common sense watched that insanity on Tuesday.  When I see someone with a house that is a shrine to Trump, I assume they're either a fascist or a fucking dope.  It's like putting a billboard up in your yard to announce, "I don't know what reality is, and I am a racist".

Maybe "Low Involvement Voters" are focused on the things that really matter.  I'm, of course, talking about NFL Week 2.  The first week of the NFL season is that cold slap of reality to half of the league's fans that have somehow talked themselves into optimism on their team's chances.  I sat here all summer staring at Deshaun Watson on social media buying diamond pajama pants and flying around with his bare assed girlfriend giving as much thought to football as I do to group health insurance plans.  While terminally optimistic Browns fans tried to trick themselves into believing that Watson was going to be the guy they recalled from in his one good half of football as a Brown, instead in Week 1 he looked like a Poor Man's PJ Walker.  Let's be honest.  Deshaun Watson has no intention of applying himself to be a winning NFL QB.  He's done with this football stuff.  He just wants to buy stuff.  He is no longer a reasonable option as an NFL QB.  The Browns, having given Watson $230M, have no choice but to put him out there and hope some sort of magical thunderbolt strikes him and allows him to revert back to the player he was 4 years ago.  I suspect the team might want a thunderbolt to strike him dead, but that's a discussion for next week after Watson embarrasses himself yet again in what could be his last start in the NFL this week in Jacksonville.  I'm not betting on the Jags so much as I am against Deshaun Watson.  Jacksonville -3.

On the last week of August Malik Willis got traded from Tennessee to Green Bay.  After the Jordan Love injury last week, it now appears Willis will be forced to start on Sunday against the Colts.  Look, this would be a bad situation if you were a savvy veteran QB, but this is Malik Willis.  He has never thrown for a touchdown in the NFL.  He has 67 pass attempts in his career and has been sacked 15 times.   This isn't like plugging Josh Dobbs in.  In fact, Tennessee picked up Josh Dobbs a couple years ago off the street to avoid starting Willis in a late season game, and Willis had been on the team for two years.  I have no idea how you can win a game with this guy unless the Colts turn it over 4 times.  I got on this early at Colts -2.5, but I'd take it up to 4 if I were you.

I'm going with more chalk here.  I'm nervous about taking all these favorites, and I still might take the Raiders +8.5 or Giants +1.5, but give me the Kansas City Chiefs.  They are coming off 10 days rest with Andy Reid having nothing but time to prepare for Cincinnati.  I watched some of the Bengals last week, and I don't care what the team is saying, Joe Burrow is hurt.  He bears no resemblance to the guy that almost won a Super Bowl.  He can't get the ball downfield, plus his line looks terrible.  Both sides of the Bengals lines got shoved around by the Patriots (The Patriots!) last week.  Remember, these are the same Bengals guys that made a big show of calling Arrowhead Stadium "Burrowhead" after their past success there.  I think Mahomes and the boys will want to get some separation here.  Kansas City -6.

Current record:  2-1

    

Drummer and NFL Week 1

 

When I was very young I lived outside of Philadelphia.  The house and surrounding area seemed very rural, but when you're five years old, a small vacant lot can seem like the Amazon.  It was the 1970s.  It seems insane to people now, but everyone in my 5 year old peer group spent their days as follows.  1) Wake up and shove down a bowl of Cap'n Crunch and/or Lucky Charms.  2) Throw on clothes that you found on the floor by your bed.  3). Go outside. 4) Have no contact with adults from 915am-5:59pm when you get called for dinner by your parent bellowing your name as they stood in the doorway 5) Eat the tasteless 1970s meal your Mom made in 32 seconds like a ravenous puppy while avoiding all vegetables except potatoes and corn. 6) watch the Rockford Files 7) Fight to stay up "just ten more minutes". 8) sleep and repeat.

We had no parental oversight and were essentially feral dogs patrolling a one mile radius from our homes.  We knew the topography of the surrounding ground like fucking Indian guides in Westerns.  "That skunk weed is bent.  Richard and his brother Robert were here looking for our fort.  Let's get some sticks and go beat them."  So while four kids were wailing on two other kids with sticks in the woods, our parents were smoking cigarettes and drinking Lancers wine blissfully unaware of any of our doings.  I cannot overstate how little my parents knew about what we were doing, or perhaps more important, cared about what we were doing.  For example, as people now can't comprehend how Catholic priests were able to sexually assault kids for years without detection, I can tell you firsthand, we TOLD our parents "Father Shanz took us swimming and made us take our trunks off so he could take pictures of us naked".  While one would think that news would be alarming, it was universally met with "I'm sure he had his reasons.  Now go wash our hands and get back in here for dinner.  If you aren't seated at that table by the time I put out my cigarette, you'll really have something to cry about."  That's the way it was.  You were on your own, but it didn't seem weird.  We were all in the same boat.

I had these neighbors, the Johnsons, who had an Irish Setter named "Drummer".  That dog was tied up to a dog house area with about four feet of rope.  He was enormous, or probably more accurately, seemed enormous to a five-year-old.  In retrospect, his being tied up to a tiny area and having no training whatsoever while living in a house of seven kids might have explained why the dog was fucking crazy aggressive.  When you walked past him to find a stick to give Richard a beating, the dog would lose his mind barking at you, pulling the rope to try and get you.  Every once in awhile, Drummer would get loose.

When Drummer would get loose, it was like the situation when you're about an hour into a horror movie.  The protagonists know there is a monster, they know what it is capable of, and they know that they now are its prey.  Somebody's number is up.  The word would spread quickly, maybe one of the Johnson kids would come sprinting up the hill yelling "Drummer is loose!  Drummer is loose!" as we all blinked into the sun trying to absorb this life altering new reality.  I remember one time when three of us sprinted to a tree, climbed up onto the "safe branches" above where Drummer could jump and tried to wait out Drummer's teeth snapping interest until we could scamper to the safety of someone's garage.  In this case, Drummer would not be denied.  As our parents smoked cigarettes and watched Match Game, my friend Christopher was tossed from the tree by his older brother as an offering to Drummer.  His screams filled my ears as we sprinted to my garage.  There was no time to feel guilty.  This was survival, and I felt the combination of survivor's guilt and shameful joy that it had not been me that was shoved off the tree.  It is said that even now, on a warm summer night, the high pitched scream of a five-year-old can be heard on a Full Moon.  

The best part about being five in the 1970s was that after Christopher was gored by Drummer, we all ate some shitty dinner, watched Rockford Files, went to bed and re-set the next day.  Drummer was tied back up, we all went outside after gnawing on a Pop Tart, and the same group of kids played together again, albeit with Christopher bandaged up a bit.  Everything started up again, brand new, yet filled with possibilities.  Yesterday you got beaten by these kids with sticks.  Today, maybe you'd be one of the ones with the sticks whaling on one of your assailants.  The wheel would turn.  This, to me, is where we are at with the NFL slate on Week 1.  It's all the same, yet different.

If you have read my NFL picks in the past, you know that I am a contrarian.  When they zig, I zag.  The Public is always wrong.  Walk into a Wal Mart and look around.  These people are fucking morons.  They are the same ones that now have gambling apps and are trying to put together multi team parlays that pay off at 65-1.  Let me ask you...  Do you think the guy that bought a $80,000 pickup truck and put a Monster Energy Drink sticker on it knows anything about anything?  Let's fade that guy and pick some teams that guy will never get on.

As we all know, no team has more hype around them than the Houston Texans.  This is the 2024 version of the Jacksonville Jaguars, the team we only recall as having the sexy young QB that won a playoff game and is ready to Move To The Next Level.  Here's what you forgot.  They were one dropped pass away from missing the playoffs entirely, they got smoked by the Ravens in the Playoffs, and were basically the same as the Colts and Jags.  Give me Indianapolis +3 at home over Houston.

Carolina was one of the most pathetic teams of the last decade.  They never had a lead in the fourth quarter last year.  Not once.  I think they will still suck this year, but being the NFL, they will "suck less".  Granted, this wouldn't be a great marketing slogan for the guys in the Panthers ticket office, but it's all they've got.  "Hello?  Mr. Stevens?  Chet Robinson from the Carolina Panthers here...  The reason I'm calling is we have some partial season ticket packages I think you might want to take a look at for the upcoming year.  We really like what we are seeing in Training Camp, and we feel confident we are going to suck less this season."  What are you going to do?  It's not like the Saints are exciting.  Quick factoid.  Derek Carr is 4-14 ATS as a favorite of more than three points.  Carolina +4.  

My guys in the desert are hitting it hard on their "system plays" and I'm getting on board.  What does this mean?  Krusty and I have talked each other into betting against Washington.  There are three big negatives for Washington that don't have a great track record of success.  It's a rookie QB in his first start with a new coach in a new system with a new DC who is giving defenses to a new green dot guy.  Look, I'm no big fan of Tampa, but they are a three time division winner at home in Florida in the September heat playing the piece of shit Commanders.  Tampa -3.5.   

Nurse the Hate: Bring On The NFL

 

I am moving away from a life of "continual growth" to "survival".  All my hopes and dreams are now coming down to two things…  The distraction of NFL gambling and the lottery.  I’ve hit the age where I’m trying to balance being marginalized in most aspects of life, living with radically reduced expectations and living under the cloud of existential dread that seems to be 2024’s biggest takeaway.  Really, the little victories are all I’m pushing for now.  

I have a basset hound that ate two rocks last week.  I don't know why he did that, but he did it.  The good news is that he shit one out after being aided by some horrible vet induced chemical cocktail.  The other one was stuck in his stomach and had to be removed surgically.  That was a $3200 bill.  Super.  I got home and my dishwasher died.  The options are putting in a $350 repair order on a 20 year old dishwasher or buying a new one.  Verdict?  Hello $1200 dishwasher.  I flew over to England for a wedding in the high season, discovered that Edinburgh was even more expensive than London, and got food poisoning in the United Club in Newark after a super dodgy aborted landing made me miss the connection.  My credit card company will be sending a hitman out after me to shake down what is sure to be an awe inducing balance.  

Here’s the bottom line.  Thank God football is back and I can now apply some tunnel vision to drown out the sea of noise threatening to wash over me.  I have to get some winners together, and I’ll tell you, I have some opinions on these season win totals…

The Kansas City Chiefs have been so reliably good for so long, it seems like their 2023 regular season was  sort of crappy.  They just didn't have that dominant type year that they have reeled off since 2016.  Guess what?  They still finished 11-6.  Mahomes has been a starter for six years.  They have won the AFC West all 6 years, and never won less than 11 games.  They managed to do that when the Chargers, Raiders and Broncos were kind of good too.  Now they're rolling into a season where they appear to be transitioning over to better skill players just as the Broncos and Chargers are starting rebuilds.  The Raiders?  Well, they're the Raiders.  They serve only to be the opponents for when you and your boys travel to Vegas on a roadie to see your team win... and lose $3000 in craps.  As long as Mahomes stays healthy, the Chiefs should win 12 games easy.  Denver/Chargers/Broncos should be 5-1.  They also play the NFC South (Bucs/Falcons/Saints/Panthers).  What's that?  8-2?  9-1?  Now we're looking for a 4-3 record vs the rest of the schedule to get to 12 wins.  They've won 12 games 6 of the last 8 years.  Why not one more time?  Kansas City Over 11.5 wins.

Every year there is a team that completely flames out, and this year it’s going to be the Patriots.  It’s very odd to me the way that resolutely sound organization for 20+ years denigrated into a three way set of finger pointing where each camp wanted to take credit for the unprecedented success that they’d achieved.  They should be taking victory laps doing that three way bow the way crappy theater casts do after a performance.  Brady, Belichick and Kraft should all be standing around saying “No!  YOU’RE the greatest!” instead of all scrambling around trying to take all the credit.  The fact that Kraft is the one most focused on showing how smart he is, when he clearly did the wise thing during the dynasty run and stayed out of the way, is maybe the most mystifying.

The Patriots decided to radically reverse course on what they had been doing so well that it was called “The Patriot Way” and now decided to be “Player Friendly”.  I cannot ever recall a football team that got better by becoming more loose and chummy.  The Patriots run out a football genius who had perhaps the most control over any organization in the NFL and replaced him with what is by most accounts a questionable hire as head coach who has never coached before.  The team stayed somewhat competitive by playing great defense last year, and now they lost two of their best defenders to injury and traded a third.  Oh, and Belichick isn’t calling the defense any longer.  An already shoulder injured Jacoby Brisset will make a few starts behind an awful offensive line until they toss Drake Maye out there at QB.  There are no offensive skill players of note.  This looks all bad to me.  Where do the wins come from?  New England UNDER 4.5 wins.