The Election and Week 9
There is a Senate race going on in Ohio right now, which means tremendous amounts of money from both candidate's vested interests are pouring money into all of my devices to tell me how my two biggest concerns right now are immigrants (that are apparently exclusively Central American gang members intent on murdering young white women) and what appears to be middle aged men dressed as women competing in high school girls basketball. Between us, I'm not really concerned about either issue. If we can get some hard working immigrants to move to Ohio to do all the jobs our current population doesn't want to do, that would be great. Also, I don't think that many 16 year old boys are chopping their genitals off to win a Ohio Southwestern Conference Girl's Basketball title. If they are, that's the sort of dedication that I think maybe we should celebrate, not condemn. I looked up how many trans people played high school girls basketball last year in Ohio. It was seven. There are about 12 million people in Ohio. To me, this isn't one of our biggest problems, but based on the advertising spend, most other people that live here disagree with my assessment.
I don't know how this election is going to shake out. Either way, it's really depressing. I've worked in advertising for the last 35 years. The one thing that I have learned over that time that has stood out above everything else is that most people are complete fucking morons. Here is how advertising works. If something is repeated over and over, that becomes the truth. Flim flam diet pills, reverse mortgage scams, time share hustles... Most of us look at those and think "that's too good to be true". Yet, there are a lotta rubes out there. You remember Body Solutions? It was this weight loss product which was touted to magically shed pounds off users with its secret formula (which was actually telling people to take Body Solutions after dinner and then not eat until breakfast, eliminating all their snacking calories). They made $155M on their biggest year selling sugar water before the FTC shut it down.
We have about half the country right now that wants to buy political Body Solutions. Problems like foreign policy, medical coverage, immigration, and the environment aren't even basically understood by the vast majority of the population. If you don't understand why Russia invaded Ukraine, what NATO is and why it exists, and the ramifications of that military conflict on the global economy, it's easy to get pissed at Joe Biden because your gas at Speedway costs .85 cents more a gallon than what you think you remembered four years ago. "I will end the war in Ukraine as soon as I get elected." isn't a plan. It's a Body Solutions ad.
It's like people forgot how fucked up things were during the Trump Presidency. If you're watching a lot of Fox News or listening to Bro Podcasts every week, it's easy to get convinced that you remembered everything wrong. January 6th wasn't an insurrection. It was a protest. Trump didn't try to overturn the election. It was stolen from him. Once again, the principles of advertising, repeating a message over and over shows that it works. About half the country can't wait to line up and hand over the country to a complete incompetent, someone his own handpicked advisors almost unanimously say "You can't give him power again. He's fucking dangerous.". It's amazing if it wasn't such an impending disaster.
When I look at the election, there are two quotes that come to mind. One is from the great humor author David Sedaris who wrote about undecided voters in 2008, "To put them in perspective, I think of being on an airplane. The flight attendant comes down the aisle with her food cart and, eventually, parks it beside my seat. “Can I interest you in the chicken?” she asks. “Or would you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broken glass in it?” To be undecided in this election is to pause for a moment and then ask how the chicken is cooked.”
The astounding thing about the Trump hardcore is that they have been completely duped by a conman yet again. This is a serious time with some serious problems. Trump is a 78 year old man trying to stay out of jail and is focused, as always, on his own personal gain. Even the people in his inner circle got fucked on his last time in office. Yet, there might be enough dipshits out there that aren't engaged enough to remember, sift through the media bubble they're in to figure out what reality looks like, and we will all get to take a ride on the bad impulses of a sociopath. During this rise of MAGA, the United States has turned mean. The great majority of people that I live near have a vibe of "Fuck You". If you're in that Fox News/Tucker Carlson bubble the world keeps being presented as "They" are out to get "You". It's hard to be decent when you think everyone you don't know is The Enemy. In a way, I sort of hope for a Trump win so those people absorb the end result of the societal sorting of the "Fuck Yous" and the "I'm Fuckeds". You better hope you get to be in charge of that sorting is all I can say. When I think about a Trump victory on Tuesday, I think about H.L. Menken's quote "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."
Talking about getting it good and hard, that's been my season so far with the NFL. Whenever I feel like I have a sense of who is a good team, the NFL snow globe gets shaken up again and I realize I don't know anything. I'm going back to basics on a couple of these. Give me a good quarterback and a good coach, and that's a pretty decent chance of winning. I'm looking at you Buffalo. Miami is soft. They don't have much of a pass rush, and they keep giving away leads. If you don't rush Josh Allen, that guy will kill you. I think Buffalo is one of the AFC elites teams (still), and this could be one of their annual Miami beatdowns. Buffalo has beaten Miami 9 of their last 10 meetings. Miami is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games. It's divisional so maybe it gets close, but Buffalo wins at home. Buffalo money line split with Buffalo -6.
Remember when it looked like Chicago was going to be the team they were hyped up to be all off season? They won 3 in a row, and then lost that crazy Hail Mary against an apparently pretty good Commanders team. Well... Those three wins were against an injured Rams team, Carolina and Jacksonville. They've lost to the Texans, Colts and Commanders. You know, Arizona is sort of like those three teams. Arizona is 5-5 in their last 10 since Murray came back. This is a Cardinal team that hung in with Buffalo on the road, lost a close low scoring game with the Lions, and beat SF/LA (both) and Miami. I like Arizona -1 at home.
In what is the worst game of the year in the NFL, Tennessee takes on New England. Both of these teams are atrocious but have average to slightly above average defenses. I think my boy Mason Rudolph is starting for Tennessee, which means I considered betting Titans as I know he won't cause two turnovers that will force me to string together profanities into exciting new combinations like when Will Levis starts. However, I think the more compelling bet is New England team total under 17.5. There are two things I know about Jacoby Brissett. 1. He doesn't take a lot of chances and will avoid turnovers. 2. Because he doesn't take chances, he also doesn't score points, especially since New England has no running game to speak of. I thought about going game under, but why not dial in on what I feel strongest about... a conservative New England team that really sucks. New England UNDER 17.5 UPDATE: Drake Maye cleared concussion protocol and will start, so I am dumping out of this.
How is Carolina going to win another game? The Panthers are a great example of what happens when someone from another line of business decides he can step in and be The Man in the NFL. They have no roster, no coaching, and no will to continue. There is a joy to see these Hedge Fund guys flame out. Carolina is 1-9 ATS in their last 10. They have one good game all year and Bryce Young is going to go under center this week to extinguish all hope. Derek Carr is back, and it will be enough. New Orleans money line and New Orleans -7 split.
Current Record: 10-13
posted by Greg Miller @ 8:41 PM
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