Facebook Jail, New Media and NFL Week 13

 

In case why you're wondering why I haven't been pushing out these rock solid gold football picks  on social media, I'm in Facebook jail right now.  I made the grave error of making the joke that I would have to become a c*caine dealer (even now I fear typing the word) to pay for Marvin's latest surgery.  Marvin is one of my basset hounds and continues to eat rocks for those not in the know, and it's about $3000 a pop when he does so, which is great.  Facebook's bots determined I violated community standards as I was attempting to sell illegal narcotics on my Facebook account and then either eliminated or suspended my account.  It's not really clear.

I received an automated email from them stating "Your Facebook account has been suspended. This is because your account, or activity on it, doesn't follow our Community Standards on guns, drugs and other restricted goods.  If you think we suspended your account by mistake, you have 180 days to appeal our decision. If you miss this deadline your account will be permanently disabled."  Normally I wouldn't really give a shit about that as the current Facebook algorithm has decided I am very interested in things I don't follow and am decidedly NOT interested in.  I do know what Sammy Hagar is up to though.  However, the Whiskey Daredevils account is tied to my personal account and therefore that got suspended too.  

Here's yet another reason why Facebook sucks.  When you send in your "appeal", in my case it was noting I clearly wasn't a drug dealer and made a sarcastic joke suggesting that becoming involved in the dangerous drug trade was a serious consideration when absorbing the crippling costs of paying for the care of a basset hound puppy.  When you hit "send" on that, there is no longer any response from the platform.  There is no automated email kickback, place to check your status, nothing.  Facebook also does not have a customer service department, responsive email center, chat bot, or any consumer interface.  It's impossible to even log into Meta Business Suite.  As far as I know, "Facebook" is all running out of Zuckerberg's house and his mobile phone.  If anyone knows that guy, can someone tell him to kick the Whiskey Daredevils account back on?  

The inability to interact with any kind of customer service highlights the dramatic shift in media that has happened in the last 20 years.  There really is no reason for me to have access to customer service.  I'm not the customer.  I'm the product.  Facebook is not selling my content and participation on the platform.  Facebook sells me.  

I work at a TV station.  Broadcast TV is, just now, figuring out that they are Newspapers 10 years ago.  A decade ago when the Cleveland Plain Dealer turned from Monstrous Monolith into an almost empty building in a shockingly swift amount of time, these broadcast TV stations proceeded along in a "can't happen here" mindset.  There are four local broadcast stations in each market, buildings filled with people oblivious to what has happened.  There are entire newsrooms that refer to themselves as "community resources" battling to "win at 5p" that cannot grasp the Facebook principle.  The newscast isn't the product.  The audience is.  As their potential audience slides out of the hourglass, they attempt to adjust with the dexterity of a massive ocean liner.  They are doomed and they don't even know it.  

The company that I work for is tossing as much shit as they can at the wall hoping to stem the tide somehow.  There is a product called Tablo which is a reconfigured digital antennae that provides all the local broadcast stations and a kazillion "freevee" channels, which consist of marginal old programming like Magnum PI with ads awkwardly chopped into the program.  In this market, there are 167 free channels available on Tablo.  I opened it up and my mind almost exploded.  There are channels and programs that you have never heard of, an alternate universe of sorts, where apparently everyone has their own show.  In theory there is enough of an audience to support networks like Comet, Nosey, Powder (better not make the logical joke there, right Zuckerberg?), Dove, and IND.  Who is watching any of these programs and networks?

Even more compelling to me is "Who is selling this?".  There is some poor sad sack of shit sitting in in a car hunched over crafting an email onto his mobile typing something like "This is Greg from Circle TV and let me ask you a question... What would you say if I could get you product placement in the #3 Circle TV show "Coffee, Country and Cody"?  And before you answer, consider this... I also COULD place you into Jessica McGovern's Flour Power holiday episode on Gusto TV.".   These are real shows by the way. It's like you fell asleep and woke up a decade later to discover a total shift in pop culture or you'd fallen into a worm hole into a mirror universe where everything was familiar yet somehow different.  You know... like going to Canada.  

The only thing that all Americans care about en masse is NFL Football.  Of the 25 most watched TV shows last year, 24 of those were NFL Football games.  The 25th was OSU v Michigan.  If you have wandered into my little blog account, somehow finding your way in the wilderness, let's bring the community together once again.  Let's get a couple of winners going.  I'm feeling good after hitting that Raiders +13.5 yesterday AND watching them flame out while doing so.  It's going to be a great Sunday.  Let's get up early, watch a little "Temptation 1" on BuzzrTV, scroll our Facebook feeds (well, some of us anyway), and get on the LA Chargers -1 over Atlanta.  

Atlanta is one of those sorta soft teams in the middle of the pack.  I don't think about the Falcons very often.  It's one of those teams that come by on the ticker and you note "Hmmm.  Falcons are up by three over Carolina." and then think about something else.  The Chargers have won four of their last five, and if their blown draft pick receiver from last year hadn't dropped two key passes, they might have beaten the Ravens last week.  Atlanta has lost two of their last three, their win a close call versus the Cowboys.  I think the Chargers are a playoff team.  They're a "lose in the Wild Card round" playoff team, but a playoff team nonetheless.  Atlanta cannot get pressure on the QB, so I think the Chargers can create some long time consuming drives.  I don't like that Dobbins is out, but I think LA is the right side here.  

I absolutely hate Tennessee.  Will Levis has really cost me some money this year.  His focus has been on throwing touchdowns, but to the opposite team.  Lately he's thrown a touchdown or two over to his own players, so I'm liking the Over 44 in the Washington v Tennessee game.  Washington's defense is just crappy enough to allow around 17-20 to Tennessee, and hopefully that's all we'll need here.  Levis gives that turnover variance that is key to pushing totals over.  Gametime weather partly sunny and mid 40s.   Tennessee/Washington OVER 44.

San Francisco is a mirage, a pale memory of the juggernaut of the last few years.  All of their key players are hurt in some way or another.  Purdy didn't practice Wednesday, so they'll probably shove him out there in the snow with a bunch of drunk Bills fans going crazy screaming expletives at him for a few hours.  The 49ers haven't won a quality game since Oct 10th, which is debatable as that was Seattle.  Meanwhile the Bills have won six in a row, and their last loss was Oct 6th when Josh Allen got concussed.  This game is going to be cold and snowy, so maybe it will be tight.  Buffalo money line.

Give me the Denver Broncos.  The Browns win last TH night over Pittsburgh was their Super Bowl.  Those guys were making snow angels a half hour after the game ended.  Welcome Brownies to your Week 13 letdown game.  As I have stated, I think the Broncos are good.  This will be a problem for the Browns, because they aren't.  I've been watching Browns games a long time.  The personnel changes, but Cleveland never plays well there.  Since 1975, the Browns are 2-14 at Denver.  Why would they win against a playoff hungry Broncos that are 8-2 ATS in their last 10?  Denver -5     

Current Record:  22-22

Thanksgiving Galaxy of Wagers

 

I have always been "blessed" at not having enormous family functions to attend on Thanksgiving.  As a kid, my extended family lived too far away in New York and Chicago from our inconvenient outpost of Erie PA for us to travel to in any scenario that wasn't a Bataan Death March.  Do you want to toss a couple kids into an Allegheny Airlines flight with a transfer in Pittsburgh?  How about seven hours in a VW Beetle with two boys fighting over the dividing line of their side of the car?  My parents didn't and I don't harbor any grudges on that.  Besides the obvious logistical issues, I think one of the primary reasons we never got together was a great generational ignorance of culinary art.  No one in my parent's generation could cook worth a shit.  Right up and down the line, the best cooks in the family (arguably my mother?) would have received a "slightly below average" grade.  If you were looking for a barely seasoned turkey, lumpy mashed potatoes, and half assed side dishes, we could deliver.  The first time I had dinner at a second generation Italian family's house, my head almost exploded.  I didn't know that "seasoning" existed prior to that.

I have had a couple of big Thanksgivings over the years when someone would gamely try to assemble the troops.  I think because everyone had been conditioned by years of low key Thanksgiving, it just never took.  When I hear the office small talk that gets launched when someone makes the mistake of asking about a co-worker's Thanksgiving plans I often audibly let out a "ugghhhhhhh" noise.  "Well Elizabeth got in last night and James thought he could catch the early flight from Midway but he wasn't even able to get on standby, so he won't be in until late tonight.  You know James!  So Susan and I are getting up at 345a to get started on the prep, and I know Mike and the boys are going to do the Turkey Trot... No!  Not the one downtown!  We have one in the town square, but anyway..."  

I guess we've tried.  There was the time Melissa and I flew out to visit The Krustys in Las Vegas during the tail end of The Covid Era.  The plan was pretty good.  We had rented out a big Air BNB and the idea was we would cook at the house and watch football with a stack of ill-advised tickets from a sportsbook in front of us.  We got there on Wednesday late afternoon.  Thanksgiving morning Ken had covid, they had left the condo, and we had essentially flown across North America to sit in a strange house by ourselves to enjoy a Uber Eats Thanksgiving.  

Once again Thanksgiving has returned to its roots, its core essence.  Today will be a low key day focused on the things that you can count on, football gambling and high quality wine.  Tradition must be served, and for me that is The Galaxy of Wagers.  I like to have at least some action on everything that is going off today.  Even better is to have unrelated things intertwined.  I have teasers cutting across NFL/NCAA Football/NCAA Basketball with teams that I know almost nothing about.  I've even got a ton of action on Europa futbol clubs I didn't know existed two days ago.  The absolute most important thing is to create so many moving parts that you look at the scoreboard and have to question "Is this good for me?'.  Right around lunchtime I will be sweating out a Porto/Bilbao Athletic Club parlay while you are considering if you are going to argue with your politically diametrically opposite aligned Uncle.  (Wait until dinner.  It's best there.)  

Allow me to present to you a few ABSOLUTE LOCKS for today's action.  You're welcome.

There has been an avalanche of "smart" money on the Bears over the Lions today.  I can't make any sense of it.  The Bears have lost five straight, two in heartbreaking fashion.  They were double digit underdogs to the Lions, universally regarded as the best team in the NFL right now.  I could type out a stack of trends that show double digit favorites on Thanksgiving (a short week) win 67% of the time.  The idea is that with reduced time to plan it becomes which team has the better players.  That team is the Lions.  The fact that the Lions just keep the foot down on the gas pedal makes me even more comfortable with taking them.  Dan Campbell has the best ATS record of any coach in the NFL.  This is a fast Lions team on turf vs a Bears team that plays half their games on that weird grass at Soldier Field.  Favorites overwhelmingly cover on Thanksgiving.  It all points to the Lions here.  I got down yesterday on the Detroit -9.  

I'll get something going on that absolute piece of shit Giants v Cowboys game in the 4p slot, but it's a weird situation.  The Giants might start an injured Tommy Devito, their third string undrafted QB as opposed to the backup Drew Lock that they paid $5M to be on the roster.  If Devito starts, I'm on Dallas despite Cooper Rush being absolutely terrible.  It's odd that the clearly best QB on either rosters is the one that is questionable to start.  If Lock starts I'll probably play the Giants if the number is big enough, but it's not a case of "taking off the rubber band", but more "sprinkling a little" on the Giants.  If Devito starts, I'm in on Dallas.  If the Giants lose this game in embarrassing fashion, the bloodbath that will occur in New York and national media is going to be uncomfortable to watch.  What a crappy game.

My understanding is that it is going to be cold in Green Bay tonight.  A nice crisp 25 degree night in Wisconsin is not what a team from South Florida is looking for over the holiday.  Miami has been talking shit about how their playoff game last year in freezing Kansas City will have them ready for Green Bay.  I don't know why that would be the case as they got smoked in KC.  People will be concerned about how Tua is 0-4 in this weather and admittedly hates the cold, but for me it's the fact that playing defense is that much tougher in cold weather.  Green Bay is kinda shitty, but a night game at home in crappy weather is a good spot for them.  Green Bay -3   

You want some Europa action?  How about that Memphis State v Tulane game?  There's no reason not to tie in some NCAA Football.  Oh, don't forget to bet against Aiden O'Connell who the Raiders have decided to toss in against the Chiefs on Black Friday.  Who wants a Bilboa Athletic Club/Detroit Lions/Green Bay/Memphis St +14.5 parlay?  Gimme a flier on Porto early!  I've been there and the people will come out hard for their club.  The plan is to have 16-20 active tickets with no clear idea of what happened until the dust settles as the New Mexico v Arizona St basketball game tips off at 1130p.  I'm ready.  I've got Cru Beaujolais and Premier Cru Burgundy and Champagne.  There is no stopping me.  

Current record:  21-21

Johnny Marr and NFL Week 12

 

I just read Johnny Marr's autobiography.  It was odd not to be reading a wine textbook, but I needed a break.  If you aren't down with The Smiths, you obviously were not a 19 year old in the mid 1980s.  Look, I know that Morrissey can be a bit much.  When he was a 22 year old provocateur celibate (wink wink), he was much more interesting than the grumpy old LA queen he slowly morphed into.  That Smiths catalogue is undeniably great, mostly for Johnny Marr's catchy riffs and inventive arrangements.  When I got into them, there was almost no news or information about the band available in the American press.  All I knew was I liked the songs, and if you were having dramatic relationship problems in a way only young adults can, a Smiths record was a great soundtrack.  

I had tickets to see them in 1986 at Public Hall in Cleveland, and I couldn't go.  My mother pulled some kind of power play to jam me up and wouldn't let me take the car.  I was 19, in Columbus, and had $300 to my name, so I didn't have a lot of options.  Even now I remember my mother digging in with the rationale "I might need to use the car" smug with the leverage she had and both of us knowing she wasn't driving anywhere.  Honestly, even now I'm pissed about the incident.  I missed the show, ate the ticket cost, and the Smiths broke up a few weeks later.  I never saw The Smiths.  I still have the ticket I think.

I read the Marr book hoping to get any insight into what made that band work.  Band politics are hard to describe to someone that has never been in a band.  It's like having three girlfriends at once, and at any given time, one of them might be pissed at you.  It's tough if you are in a local band.  I can't imagine what is was like if you were those guys.  Their rise to fame is unthinkable now.  They wrote some songs.  Someone knew someone else, and they drove over to a record label to hand deliver a tape of their first recording.  The little indie label quickly pressed it.  They played a show at the soon to be famous Hacienda club.  12 people came out.  Someone at the BBC, undoubtedly a connection of the small label owner, played the record on one of the nation's four stations.  A couple weeks later because the record had response they go on Top Of The Pops to lip sync their record.  They had a gig the same night at Hacienda, and after that day's TV appearance a thousand people lined up outside to see them.  Bam.  Famous.  That's a different age...

We live in such a fractured media landscape now that people don't even live in the same reality anymore.  I've got a neighbor living in fear of MS-13 street gang members despite the fact that the most Central American thing in this community is the Taco Bell by City Hall.  I work with some women that were very excited about developments on some reality TV show and I'd never heard of the show much less the character they were debating about.  They looked at me like I was some hopelessly out of touch dork and I'm thinking the same thing about them because they didn't know what the Beachland was.  I don't know if life was better when one TV appearance made you famous for your entire life, but those days are over.  The TV station where I work has a bunch of news reporters that I couldn't name if my life depended on it, and a couple decades ago they would have been bona fide local celebs.  It's a different age.

By the way, I still don't understand why the Smiths broke up.  Marr spends the book talking about how he was the guy that was tasked with writing the music and handling the nuts and bolts of band life.  Then suddenly he says a lawyer shows up and claims to be the band's lawyer and he didn't know anything about it, which seem sort of strange since you're the main guy and people can't just show up and tell you "I'm your lawyer now".  That whole portion of the book goes like this.  "I had to handle everything which was fine because I was the only one that knew what to do.  I was writing our new album and focused on that and then this guy claims to be our lawyer shows up with documents and I just signed them without really reading them and then I got 40% of the money and Morrissey got 40% and the two other guys were pissed.  We left the little label that made us famous and went to a major label and then the little label called pissed off because no one told them we were leaving.  I was like "I'm as surprised as you are" and then we went on this tour that went great and I read in the paper when I got home that I had left the band.  The band broke up and I was like, what happened?".   Clear as mud.  Now I'll have to trudge through Morrissey's book.  Dammit.

I'll tell you this.  When I read that Morrissey book I will do so with the NFL games on.  The weather is going to be shitty and it's a perfect scenario to read a snotty mopey Brit settle some old scores while I watch the Raiders get their dicks pounded into the dirt yet again.  I have some concerns about how the favorites have been routinely covering games this year.  The sports books tend to have their Redemption Weeks and they are a savage comeuppance.  I don't want to stare with an uncomprehending gaze as Gardinar Minshew tosses a meaningless TD to some backup tight end to sneak inside the spread.  However, I cannot and will not bet with the Raiders.  That team is such a shit show and Antonio Pierce is coaching with the erratic style of a Dead Man Walking.  He should have never been a head coach in the first place and he knows these are his last weeks striding around with that mantle.  I think Sean Payton knows that for the Broncos to make the playoffs, they need to win all the games they are "supposed to" win.  I know I am buying high on the Broncos, but I'll bet against the late season Raiders when given the chance.  That line is BEGGING to be teased down, which concerns me...  Denver -6

Here's a quick handicap for you.  I don't think Seattle is any good.  I think Arizona is the best team in the NFC West.  I am going to take the better team.  Arizona -1.  People still think that Seattle has this tremendous home field advantage.  That died with the Legion of Boom fading into the memory banks.  Geno is 3-10 ATS in his last 13 starts.  How's that?  Arizona -1.    

In the spirit of the upcoming Galaxy of Wagers on Thanksgiving, let's make a nice underdog teaser.  Generally what I am looking for is low variance opponents with a good defense on the underdog side to allow the team to hang around in the fourth quarter.  Minnesota is 8-2, keeps winning, but Sam Darnold has very quietly returned to being the pedestrian QB he's been since he came into the league.  The Bears have a good defense, and have employed a quick pass/high efficiency plan to try and get Caleb Williams to at least sort of look like a franchise QB.  Every talking head I have seen likes Minnesota this week.  Give me the Bears.  New England won't win in Miami this week because they almost never do.  The Dolphins like to roast the opponent in the sun while they stand around on the shade side of the stadium.  77 and sunny this Sunday according to Accuweather Megacast.  New England has been playing hard.  They're just not very good.  I am looking at Miami money line and New England with the points.  Chicago +10/New England +13.5.  

Current record:  19-19

Chicken Nugget Wars and NFL Week 11

 

I haven't spent much time with Leo in the van lately, so conversation on a three hour drive was bound to provide revelations of some kind.  We passed a bunch of billboards in the greater Erie area all advertising various chicken nugget combinations.  I'm not sure why the chicken nugget market is so contested in NW Pennsylvania, but some joint called "Mavericks" inside Trucker's World had a billboard that appeared to advertise an enormous bucket of overflowing nuggets, like a paint bucket that you would put on your dash board and just gnaw through as you knocked down the miles.  Sheetz, not to be outdone, countered with a product that seemed to combine the words "Shit" and "Nuggets" in their demand you pull over and enjoy an overflowing container of "Schnuggets".  This got the gears rolling inside the van as it jostled Leo's memory of a spontaneous dish he had created using tuna fish and Skittles.  I guess he melted down the Skittles somehow and that became a glaze or something?  I don't know.  My stomach did a flip flop even thinking about it.  He contended that "People loved it", though he did also admit being "stoned as fuck" during the creation and serving of the aforementioned dish.  

The NW Pennsylvania Chicken Nugget Wars drew us in.  Our thought was why stop at a bucket of nuggets?  Why create limits in the condiments?  This might be a great time for Mephisto's, Leo's magician themed dream restaurant concept, to strike while the market is hot.  May we present NW Pennsylvania's next "it" food... chocolate chicken nuggets.  There is a slight disagreement in how we present this next sure-fire food craze.  My vision is a paper box with 18-24 deep fried nuggets that houses a "sauce caddy" of three different chocolate dipping sauces (milk chocolate, dark chocolate and white chocolate).  A typical takeout order at Mephisto's would sound like "Gimme a 24 piece chocolate chicken nugget box with extra white chocolate dipping sauce".  

Leo's vision is the nuggets are pre-cooked and then encased in chocolate like a hard candy shell.  The downside to this is you'll have chicken at room temperature for extended periods, but we'll pump them so full of preservatives it's unlikely any bacteria could take root in the nugget.  Note, I said "unlikely", not "guaranteed".  The upside to this method is that a vast array of secondary condiments can be baked in like "Chocolate Spicy Curry Chicken Nugget" and "Jamaican Jerk White Chocolate Chicken Nugget".  Obviously, this is going to upend the chicken nugget landscape of Northwest Pennsylvania as soon as that first Mephisto's inevitably opens up off a Greater Erie PA turnpike exit.  The thought is that is going to be hugely successful, but it should also be noted that Leo was "high as fuck".  The key is to remember Mephisto's motto.  Mephisto's, it's anything you want it to be.

Buffalo is clearly embracing the Mephisto's lifestyle as everywhere in our hotel people were decked out in Bills gear.  This is a huge Sunday for Bills fans as The Witch comes to town, and the people really feel like THIS TIME they've got Mahomes number.  Look, the Bills are probably just as good as the Chiefs and they will be sky high for this game.  This is exactly the type of game Buffalo wins, a home game in season against the team that will probably knock them out of the playoffs yet again.  However, if you are going to offer me the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs with +2.5 AND give me +112 juice, I'm in.  Kansas City +2.5.

Every single talking head I have heard this week has confidently said "take the Browns".  When they zig, I zag.  Why the Browns are favored over ANYONE on the road, I have no idea.  There is an idea floating around that Jameis Winston is going to be electric in some sort of homecoming in New Orleans, which I can't imagine he has any axe to grind there.  It's hard to justify why either team will win.  The Saints really suck in all phases, but yet so do the Browns.  Winston is the great variable here.  In his two starts, he got lucky when Baltimore dropped two sure INTs.  San Diego didn't drop those and rolled easily.  I think the key is we have seen that Winston will create turnover potential, and the Browns aren't good enough to overcome that.  New Orleans +1.5    

Two things happen every single NFL season.  The Browns go in with big expectations and then fall apart.  Conversely, every single season the Steelers are finally projected to have a losing season.  Then, somehow The Steelers win 10 games with some bullshit patchwork offense and solid defense.  Check and check.  Steelers v Ravens is almost always a one score game.  What no one is talking about is Pittsburgh has beaten Baltimore in 7 of the last 8 meetings.  They know how to scheme Lamar.  Give me Pittsburgh at home with points.  I think Pittsburgh is the sleeper team in the AFC.  Pittsburgh +3.5 

There is something perversely fun in rooting against the Jets and Raiders.  They both go into the year with a bunch of insane hype despite obvious massive flaws in their team design and competence levels of their front offices.  I am going to tease both of them today and take Indianapolis +10.5 over the Jets and Miami -1.5 over the Raiders and aggressively hope for the continued failure of both franchises melted together like a chocolate chicken nugget.

Season Record:  16-18

Four More Years+ and NFL Week 10

 

Well, the election turned out like I had suspected/feared it would.  In 2016 the thinking was it was a fluke, or maybe the Russian interference helped swing the tide.  The white nationalism and bully pulpit strongman embrace wasn't really who were were as a nation.  People just didn't like Hillary.  Yeah, that's it.  But now with this result it's time to admit what America is a place where justice, fairness, and empathy are in the backseat to "Fuck you".  In my neighborhood there are a crew of Mexican roofers doing an install that have to look across the street to a sneering neighbor who continues to wave his "Trump: Take America Back" flag four days after the results.  "You are poisoning the blood of our country.  Now put up my roof."  I'll tell you what, I'm not looking forward to attending the Master of Wine seminar in January and having to explain to people of other countries why the majority of Americans think the way they do.  We are viewed as the stupid bully in the grade school class, and it's hard to argue the point.  I don't know what the path ahead is going to bring, but I know a bunch of people are going to get fucked, and as they hope for help the response is going to be "Fuck you.".  Good luck.  You're on your own unless you are in on the upcoming grift. 

That being said, it's a great time for the distraction of NFL football as we await the upcoming slide into autocracy.  It all sounds pretty bleak, but not as bleak as being a Carolina Panthers fan.  The Panthers have the rare distinction of not only being constructed poorly as they are a pass first offense with extremely limited skill players and no quarterback.  They also are playing poorly and appear to have no plan on how to win.  Yet, despite being wildly outplayed last week against a terrible Saints team, they managed to win thanks to now-fired Saints coach Dennis Allen's leadership.  The Panthers were outgained 254 yards to 446, had 80 yards rushing and held the ball for 25 minutes yet somehow won.  They didn't even look like they were trying to win either as their defense sorta jogged around the field.  

This week the Panthers play the Giants, who aren't exactly a juggernaut themselves but at least play hard.  I think the Panthers are the worst team on paper since the 0-16 Browns.  The Giants have won the two times they played crappy teams (Browns/Seattle) and have for the most part hung in there against the Washingtons and Pittsburghs of the league.  If they don't get a win here, where do they get one?  There is NO WAY the Carolina Panthers win two games in a row, much less traveling to Germany for this one.  The Panthers have won two games, but have lost by more than a touchdown in their seven losses.  I'll take the Giants -6.5 to cover.    

Why are the Jets favored in any game, much less on the road at Arizona?  The Jets blow.  You've watched them, right?  They can't block anyone.  They don't run the ball.  The defense is thought to be elite but, are they?  You can run on them, and Arizona can/will run the ball.  Arizona is the definition of an "OK team".  They are still thought of as being in the bottom third of the league because no one really pays attention to them, but they are ascended to become "sorta good".  Being "sorta good" is usually enough to beat the Jets at home.  Arizona +1.5.    

The Cowboys are a disaster.  Not only is the roster poorly constructed, but their top heavy contract guys are all hurt.  Their defense is awful, Dak is out, and Zeke stopped going to meetings.  It's all bad.  Meanwhile Philadelphia, despite my great misgivings about Sirianni's leadership, is going in the right direction.  It's tough to lay points with Philadelphia as at any given moment Sirianni will make a decision that is so awe inspiringly stupid you will be left speechless.  I think the way to get at this game is to at least assume that Philadelphia's top tier running game with Barkley will take advantage of Dallas's 30th ranked defense against the run and just grind away.  Unless the Eagles turn the ball over like crazy, they'll score.  Philadelphia team total OVER 23.5.    

The Bears just got an asskicking in Arizona last week.  I like to back decent teams off an asskicking, especially when they get to play a shitty team at home the following week.  The Patriots are just what the doctor ordered for the Bears.  Chicago is 4-0 at home, and now that they don't have to talk about that Hail Mary from two weeks ago anymore, they should be focused on this week's game.  The Patriots can't move the ball, but neither can Chicago so this should be a sludgefest of a game.  Instead of worrying about separation and getting pissed when the Bears keep it close, I'll just take Chicago moneyline.

Current record note, when I dumped out of that Patriots UNDER 17.5 I had to take Patriots OVER 16.5 on the other end of it and managed to middle it!  Hey-O!  Thanks New England for that otherwise meaningless late TD to hit the 17.  

Current Record:  14-16

The Election and Week 9

 

There is a Senate race going on in Ohio right now, which means tremendous amounts of money from both candidate's vested interests are pouring money into all of my devices to tell me how my two biggest concerns right now are immigrants (that are apparently exclusively Central American gang members intent on murdering young white women) and what appears to be middle aged men dressed as women competing in high school girls basketball.  Between us, I'm not really concerned about either issue.  If we can get some hard working immigrants to move to Ohio to do all the jobs our current population doesn't want to do, that would be great.  Also, I don't think that many 16 year old boys are chopping their genitals off to win a Ohio Southwestern Conference Girl's Basketball title.  If they are, that's the sort of dedication that I think maybe we should celebrate, not condemn.  I looked up how many trans people played high school girls basketball last year in Ohio.  It was seven.  There are about 12 million people in Ohio.  To me, this isn't one of our biggest problems, but based on the advertising spend, most other people that live here disagree with my assessment.  

I don't know how this election is going to shake out.  Either way, it's really depressing.  I've worked in advertising for the last 35 years.  The one thing that I have learned over that time that has stood out above everything else is that most people are complete fucking morons.  Here is how advertising works.  If something is repeated over and over, that becomes the truth.  Flim flam diet pills, reverse mortgage scams, time share hustles...  Most of us look at those and think "that's too good to be true".  Yet, there are a lotta rubes out there.  You remember Body Solutions?  It was this weight loss product which was touted to magically shed pounds off users with its secret formula (which was actually telling people to take Body Solutions after dinner and then not eat until breakfast, eliminating all their snacking calories).  They made $155M on their biggest year selling sugar water before the FTC shut it down.

We have about half the country right now that wants to buy political Body Solutions.  Problems like foreign policy, medical coverage, immigration, and the environment aren't even basically understood by the vast majority of the population.  If you don't understand why Russia invaded Ukraine, what NATO is and why it exists, and the ramifications of that military conflict on the global economy, it's easy to get pissed at Joe Biden because your gas at Speedway costs .85 cents more a gallon than what you think you remembered four years ago.  "I will end the war in Ukraine as soon as I get elected." isn't a plan. It's a Body Solutions ad.  

It's like people forgot how fucked up things were during the Trump Presidency.  If you're watching a lot of Fox News or listening to Bro Podcasts every week, it's easy to get convinced that you remembered everything wrong.  January 6th wasn't an insurrection.  It was a protest.  Trump didn't try to overturn the election.  It was stolen from him.  Once again, the principles of advertising, repeating a message over and over shows that it works.  About half the country can't wait to line up and hand over the country to a complete incompetent, someone his own handpicked advisors almost unanimously say "You can't give him power again.  He's fucking dangerous.".  It's amazing if it wasn't such an impending disaster.

When I look at the election, there are two quotes that come to mind.  One is from the great humor author David Sedaris who wrote about undecided voters in 2008, "To put them in perspective, I think​ of being​ on an airplane.​ The flight attendant comes​ down the aisle​ with her food cart and, eventually,​ parks​ it beside my seat.​ “Can I inter​est you in the chick​en?​” she asks.​ “Or would​ you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broke​n glass​ in it?”  To be undecided in this elect​ion is to pause​ for a moment and then ask how the chicken is cooked.”  

The astounding thing about the Trump hardcore is that they have been completely duped by a conman yet again.  This is a serious time with some serious problems.  Trump is a 78 year old man trying to stay out of jail and is focused, as always, on his own personal gain.  Even the people in his inner circle got fucked on his last time in office.  Yet, there might be enough dipshits out there that aren't engaged enough to remember, sift through the media bubble they're in to figure out what reality looks like, and we will all get to take a ride on the bad impulses of a sociopath.  During this rise of MAGA, the United States has turned mean.  The great majority of people that I live near have a vibe of "Fuck You".  If you're in that Fox News/Tucker Carlson bubble the world keeps being presented as "They" are out to get "You".  It's hard to be decent when you think everyone you don't know is The Enemy.  In a way, I sort of hope for a Trump win so those people absorb the end result of the societal sorting of the "Fuck Yous" and the "I'm Fuckeds".  You better hope you get to be in charge of that sorting is all I can say.  When I think about a Trump victory on Tuesday, I think about H.L. Menken's quote "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."

Talking about getting it good and hard, that's been my season so far with the NFL.  Whenever I feel like I have a sense of who is a good team, the NFL snow globe gets shaken up again and I realize I don't know anything.  I'm going back to basics on a couple of these.  Give me a good quarterback and a good coach, and that's a pretty decent chance of winning.  I'm looking at you Buffalo.  Miami is soft.  They don't have much of a pass rush, and they keep giving away leads.  If you don't rush Josh Allen, that guy will kill you.  I think Buffalo is one of the AFC elites teams (still), and this could be one of their annual Miami beatdowns.  Buffalo has beaten Miami 9 of their last 10 meetings.  Miami is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games.  It's divisional so maybe it gets close, but Buffalo wins at home.  Buffalo money line split with Buffalo -6.    

Remember when it looked like Chicago was going to be the team they were hyped up to be all off season?  They won 3 in a row, and then lost that crazy Hail Mary against an apparently pretty good Commanders team.  Well... Those three wins were against an injured Rams team, Carolina and Jacksonville.  They've lost to the Texans, Colts and Commanders.  You know, Arizona is sort of like those three teams.  Arizona is 5-5 in their last 10 since Murray came back.  This is a Cardinal team that hung in with Buffalo on the road, lost a close low scoring game with the Lions, and beat SF/LA (both) and Miami.  I like Arizona -1 at home.

In what is the worst game of the year in the NFL, Tennessee takes on New England.  Both of these teams are atrocious but have average to slightly above average defenses.  I think my boy Mason Rudolph is starting for Tennessee, which means I considered betting Titans as I know he won't cause two turnovers that will force me to string together profanities into exciting new combinations like when Will Levis starts.  However, I think the more compelling bet is New England team total under 17.5.  There are two things I know about Jacoby Brissett.  1.  He doesn't take a lot of chances and will avoid turnovers.  2.  Because he doesn't take chances, he also doesn't score points, especially since New England has no running game to speak of.  I thought about going game under, but why not dial in on what I feel strongest about... a conservative New England team that really sucks.  New England UNDER 17.5   UPDATE:  Drake Maye cleared concussion protocol and will start, so I am dumping out of this.  

How is Carolina going to win another game?  The Panthers are a great example of what happens when someone from another line of business decides he can step in and be The Man in the NFL.  They have no roster, no coaching, and no will to continue.  There is a joy to see these Hedge Fund guys flame out.  Carolina is 1-9 ATS in their last 10.  They have one good game all year and Bryce Young is going to go under center this week to extinguish all hope.  Derek Carr is back, and it will be enough.  New Orleans money line and New Orleans -7 split.  

Current Record:  10-13