Nurse the Hate: My Head Cold and NFL Week 3

 

I got some monster head cold midweek.  At first I was convinced it was covid.  That is because any symptom for almost any ailment is potentially covid.  I used to go on WebMD when I thought that was a useful tool, but every time I used that the prognosis came back as "stomach cancer".  Now I take one of the million covid tests I have laying around and it comes back negative.  That's when you can count on someone popping up to tell you, "My co-worker's sister-in-law came up negative on a covid test, but it was a false negative and now she's in an iron lung!".  The key is to limit your contact to the MAGA crowd, the ones that create their own reality where climate change is a somehow well funded scam from the flimsy solar panel companies, San Francisco is 1946 Calcutta, and covid was a confusing pyramid scheme dreamt up by Bill Gates so the poor guy could finally make a buck.  It's best to stick the head in the sand.

We were on tour in Switzerland once and a head cold ricocheted around the tour van.  Leo, of course, got it first as he fully committed to his "streaking comet across the sky" lifestyle as soon as his boots hit the ground.  Staying up overnight on a Redeye flight and then partying your ass off for the next two days essentially guarantees getting a cold, and that's what happened.  In retrospect, that's exactly what I did as I flew in from San Francisco last Sunday night/Monday morning watching bad movies and then rolled into work like nothing happened.  I'm too old and rickety to pull the same shit Leo did a decade ago.

Anyway, Leo gets this cold and since you're all cooped up in a tin can together, it's only a matter of time before we all get it.  We had this guy Richard driving us around on that tour.  I can't remember why Christoph wasn't "driving the tank", but it was Richard that time.  Anyway, after the incident immortalized on the Daredevils song "Just The Thing", I was sitting feeling sorta shitty staring at a cup of tea with Richard in this Euro Hostel breakfast room.  It's all plastic chairs, tiny cups, and little yogurts.  Richard, at about the same point in his cold that I was, stroked his beard and said the following words of wisdom.  "It doesn't matter if we sit here or get on with it.  Either way, we will feel like shit.  We might as well get on with it."

So, let's get on with it.  I don't know if it's the leftover buzz of NyQuil, but I am making some very questionable choices on this week's slate of NFL games.  Check this out.  I am going to bet on the Carolina Panthers with Andy Dalton starting over Seattle in Seattle.  I think the Panthers are better with Dalton instead of Young here in Week 3.  Those rookie QBs get their ass kicked early.  The game moves too fast for them.  Dalton is going to dink and dunk the Panthers between the 20 yard lines like he always does and keep it close.  Seattle is a little concerning.  Geno Smith has been playing like Old Geno instead of New Geno, so I don't think these teams are too far apart.  Also factor in that the 12th Man thing from the old Seahawks is a myth at this point with Seattle covering less than 50% at home.  I took this early in the week at +6, and the line is sitting at 5 now.   I loved it at Carolina +6 and still like it at +5.

With a quivering hand, I placed a bet on Baker Mayfield and the Bucs.  It's incredible that the reliably stupid grifting Browns ownership is paying a king's ransom for a QB that isn't as good so far this season as Baker Mayfield.  This isn't so much a testament to Mayfield, but more of a karmic payback to the Haslams.  Arguing Watson vs Mayfield is like arguing over which burger is better, Checkers or Burger King.  They both are crappy.  I'm gambling on Mayfield not doing anything stupid and playing the role of game manager vs the Eagles, a team that appears to be lovingly embracing the "Super Bowl Hangover".  Syndicate money has been pouring in against Philly all year, and I like going where that money is.  I took Tampa +6 at the same time I did the Carolina bet, and the line is sitting at 5 and dropping fast.  This feels like a backdoor cover game.

I put money on Zac Wilson.  I recognize this was the NyQuil working.  I was sitting in bed thinking "I bet this Jets v Patriots game will be a slog".  The over/under is sitting at 35 right now if you dare.  (I don't). However, the over/under does suggest points will be at a premium.  I tied the Jets into the Rams who might be better than the Bengals right now and took the points.  I regret doing it now, and to be honest I don't remember doing it, but I'm on Jets +8.5/Rams +9.   Yes, I know Wilson will throw a pick six to lose this wager for me.  Yes, Wilson will generate 76 yards of offense all game.  I know...  But I did it anyway.

Ye Gods.

Season record:  3-5

Nurse the Hate: Master of Wine Results and NFL Week 2

 

The news came to me as all important news comes to anyone in 2023, via an email.  In my inbox an entry appeared from the Institute of Masters of Wine.  I looked at it for a minute as I sat in my work cubicle.  I took in my surroundings for a second.  Various office drones tapped into their machines, the keystrokes allowing for a half dozen people they’ve never met to be rewarded with millions of dollars a year.  The significance to me of whatever news this email brought couldn’t be properly communicated to any of the dozen people in the immediate area.  It’s not just that they wouldn’t get it.  They don’t give a fuck even if they wanted to understand in the first place.  I looked at the screen.  There it was.  The result of over 18 months of intense effort.  I clicked on the email.

 

Thank you for sitting the S1A in June.  The Institute’s Education Committee has reviewed your performance, and we are delighted to confirm that you have reached the required standard to progress to stage 2 of the IMW study programme. This is a considerable achievement and one that has been hard earnt.

 

Holy shit.  I did it.  I can’t believe it.  I fucking did it.  Now granted, my reward for passing this insane test is I get to double up on my prep to try and past the next test, the last test, the Grandaddy of All Tests, allegedly one of the most difficult exams in the world.  I looked around.  There wasn’t anyone I could tell the news that would get it.  I stood up, filled with adrenalin.  I sat back down with nowhere to go.  I felt like letting out a “FUCK YEAH!” and kicking my company mandated work station chair across the room, but it seemed sort of pointless.  A call came into me.  “Greg, your guest is down in the lobby.”

I walked down to the security desk to direct the stranger to the studio so they could record a two minute TV segment.  It wasn’t my client.  I was filling in for an ill colleague.  I introduced myself to the client and escorted them to the studio.  The woman asked me how I was doing today.  “You know…”. I paused before continuing, weighing if I should even get into it.  Eh, fuck it.  There aren’t too many victories to celebrate, and this was one of them.  “I’m doing outstanding.  I just passed the S1 Master of Wine exam.”  She looked at me a little blankly, trying to figure out what any of this meant.  Who is this strange man and what did he just tell me?  Why is this TV sales guy talking about wine?  She’s just trying to be polite, looking for a comment on the weather or the Browns or other small talk, and I toss this curveball to the plate.  

“Does this mean you are a soma…suma…soma”.  Sommelier? 

This is the same conversation I have with 99.75% of the any normal human beings that haven’t become obsessive about wine.  The unpronounceable “sommelier” word suggests total command, and nobody knows what this MW thing is except fellow obsessives.  People are always disappointed that I’m “not a sommelier yet”.  It’s like when I worked in radio and people would be deflated when they learned I wasn’t a DJ.  This is in no way a value judgement.  This is my “thing” and one can’t expect people to carry in the same enthusiasm.  Like if someone told me they just had a research piece on a brown recluse spider accepted by the most important peer review journal in that field, I would respond with “that’s like spiders and bugs, right?”.  Meanwhile, the bug guy’s people would be high fiving him, blown away that he’d gotten that loxosceles reclusa research he had been working on for three years into “International Arachnid Quarterly Journal”.

 

I then tried to explain the difference between a sommelier and an MW, the various stages of somms, and then just bailed out before she glazed over.  She had asked me what time it was, and I had started building her a fucking Rolex.  It was selfish.  That’s when she leaned in after sensing an opportunity.  “Let me ask you… When you’re at a restaurant and they hand you the cork, what am I supposed to do?”.  Let’s be honest.  This is what people want to know, not the enzyme protocol possibilities in barrel fermentation of cool climate chardonnay.  (BTW, regarding that restaurant thing, you are just meant to inspect the cork to see if it’s fucked up or gross.  The pro move is to just smell the glass of the small pour of the wine sample, and nod approval to pour as long as it doesn’t smell like a wet basement or rotten eggs or anything else offensive that suggests the wine is out of whack.)

She asked me the wrong question.  What she should have asked me was “Is Miami going to cover over the Patriots?”.  It’s amazing the way the NFL works.  Week to week perceptions about teams totally change.  Miami scored a million points and racked up a stat sheet a mile long against a Chargers defense that somehow refused to get out of basic coverage schemes on The Cheetah and paid a terrible price.  They can never be stopped again.  It is the greatest offense of all time based on this one sample.  Meanwhile the Patriots almost pulled out an ugly win against an elite Eagles team, but the only headline is “Patriots lose again”.  I am going full contrarian on this and taking New England +3 at home.  I have faith in The Hoodie coming up with some complicated blitz schemes and taking Hill out of the game.  Looking for an ugly game with the points with the home team in a divisional game.

I watched that Browns v Bengals game last week with great interest.  The Bengals had been so murky about Joe Burrow’s “calf injury” it didn’t smell right.  Burrow missed not only all the preseason games but also all the drills.  He hadn’t played football in 8 months.  I’ll tell you what I saw.  I saw a guy that got rid of the ball very quickly and wanted no part of running.  Burrow had two chances to take off for first downs in the Cleveland game and didn’t consider taking off.  That guy is playing on one good leg and the other waiting for a tendon to finally fray.  Six first downs from an offense expected to be elite.  The Bengals don’t look right on offense.

Meanwhile Baltimore has implemented a “new offense” designed to turn Lamar into some sort of passing QB that netted less than 200 yards against the Texans.  They lost Dobbins for the year (yet another achilles tear), their center and their right tackle.  They gave up four sacks to the Texans.  As the team spent all offseason designing this “new offense”, they aren’t going to jettison the blueprint after an initial bad outing.  Who knows if Lamar makes the transition into this new vision, but until I see it, I ain’t buying in.  They will try again and undoubtedly have more turbulence.  I don’t know where the points are coming from in this Bengals v Ravens game.  I am in at Baltimore/Cincinnati Under 46.5.

 

OK, I really missed on that Steelers pick last week.  I’m going back in on Pittsburgh though.  SF destroyed Pittsburgh and Cleveland destroyed Cincinnati.  Public money will flood in on the Browns.  I’m going to wait and see if I can get 3.5 on Pittsburgh.  Teams that get embarrassed at home tend to respond the following week.  Tomlin coached teams do well as underdogs compounding this further.  Tomlin is now 16-5-2 ATS at home as an underdog.   The Browns looked out of sync on offense mostly because Watson looks sorta shitty.  This could be a grind of a game.  Pittsburgh +3

Current Record:  2-3

Nurse the Hate: And So It Begins

 

I live close to the high school football field.  Not close enough to smell the sizzle of the parent manned hot dog hut or hear the overstimulated chatter of middle school kids.  It is more of a background thumping of the marching band and booming echo of the PA announcer.  I have never attended a local high school game in this community so I am not sure of the protocols of when the bullhorn sounds, but I'm assuming it is during scoring plays for the home team.  The sounds waft across the darkening skies in the cooling September air.  It's starting to smell like Fall.

I saw a bunch of the players later that night going into the local BW3.  The boys still had their undershirts on from the game, the grubby clothes their badges of honor.  There is nothing quite like the swagger of a 17 year old high school football player after a home win.  Those boys just a few years back undoubtedly watched the classes of boys older than them engage in the same ritual with a combination of envy and awe.  This was now their moment and they knew their roles.  They peacocked into the restaurant with feigned indifference yet painfully aware they had placed themselves on center stage.  This was, and in many cases will continue to be, the pinnacle of their lives.  

When I was in high school we didn't go to a chain restaurant.  Our move was always the unsanctioned house party where it strikes me now that my memories of exciting storylines and dramas playing out with the obligatory backdrop of AC/DC's "Back In Black" cassette blasting doesn't really mesh with the reality of the timeline.  Kevin is sulking in the driveway because he fumbled and Karen is the one consoling him instead of his girlfriend Rachel.  My God!  And the three douchey linemen are shotgunning Stroh's in the kitchen to impress the cheerleaders so no one noticed that Patty came to the party without Dale and word is they had a fight at the game.  Holy shit.  And now that Tammi girl who normally hangs out with the burnout chicks is in the woods with Joe and Stacy is super pissed off and trying to get shit started with Tammi's friends so I bet we can clip a couple of beers from their cooler while no one is looking.  

So much happened that would dramatically shake the foundations of the social structure of Monday.  It was hard to take it all in with this much going on.   Major events unfolded at every corner of the party.  It was a semester's worth of action all at once.  This is the illusion of being that young.  In retrospect, this epic film was more of a youtube video.  Almost everyone had to be home by Midnight curfew, so the party would have broken up by 1130p.  The game would have ended at 930, so the party couldn't have even assembled until 10p.  It was 90 minutes of action, tops.  It was a layover at O'Hare.  Damn, it sure seemed to be important at the time.  Now, it's easier to focus on what is really important.  Covering the spread in Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season.

The SF 49ers have been universally accepted as an NFC favorite.  The narrative is as follows.  The 49ers should have won last year but freak injuries to their reincarnation of Tom Brady and his backup in the NFC Championship Game snatched away their hard fought glory.  The 49ers are LOADED.  They are finally going to get over the top. Brock Purdy is back, and all is well once again as the 49ers will march triumphantly crushing all their foes.  Allow me to offer a counter narrative...  

Brock Purdy was drafted last in the 2022 NFL Draft because his physical limitations suggest he is a career backup.  He is just 9 months past reconstructive elbow surgery and hasn't played a down of preseason football.  We have no idea of his physical status.  QBs that don't play in the preseason lead offenses that only score 17 points per game in their first start.  Making matters worse for the 49ers is that they play a Pittsburgh defense which is regarded as elite.  This elite defense will pressure the QB mercilessly to test his physical limits.  Pittsburgh is a 2.5 point underdog at home.  Mike Tomlin is 16-4-2 against the spread as a home underdog.  He's had all offseason to think about how to blitz Purdy and maybe force SF to trot out sad sack backup Sam Darnold.  Pittsburgh +2.5

Home underdogs in Week 1 playing divisional opponents cover two thirds of the time.  QBs that don't play in the preseason perform poorly.  This scenario fits the Browns v Bengals game.  Look, I know what you are thinking.  The Browns haven't won a home opener since Otto Graham, back in the days when Kid Leo ruled the airwaves.  Halle's was where you did your back to school shopping, and Red Barn was where you got a good cheap burger.  Those were the days when Bingo Smith led to Cavs to victory in the Richfield Coliseum and Dorthy Fuldheim gave you the news about how Elliot Ness figured out how Sam Sheppard killed his wife.  It wasn't a one armed intruder that played keyboards in the Michael Stanley Band that looked like Irish Danny Greene or some shit like that.  I know.  The Browns will crush your dreams.  But hear me out.  Joe Burrow hasn't even practiced since that mysterious "calf strain" six weeks ago.  Dude just did basic drills a couple days ago.  He has to be rusty and probably hoping his Achilles doesn't blow.  It's too much uncertainty on that side.  Against my better judgement, I'm taking the Browns.  Look, if it doesn't make you nervous, it's probably a bad bet.  Cleveland +2.5       

Looking at the "QBs that haven't played preseason and are in new systems", just like the Lions team total Under 24 (winner!) from TH Night, I'm getting on Baltimore team total under 26.5, Arizona team total under 14.5 and Chargers team total under 27.5.  In Baltimore the offense is suddenly a "Lamar is a passing QB" shift as if there hasn't been four years to do this prior.  Like, if this is a surefire way to go, what's been the holdup until now?  And we aren't going to test drive this before Week 1?  Meanwhile in Arizona the Cards decided to trade for Josh Dobbs a week ago after cutting Colt McCoy who had been taking all their first team snaps.  The underwhelming Dobbs can't even know the names of his fellow players much less their route running tendencies. I'm just praying Washington doesn't give me a backbreaking turnover to give points away here.  The Chargers one is interesting.  The Public must see this game as an offensive shootout, but I keep hearing Xs and Os guys talking about how committed to the run both of this teams want to be.  I think that game is an under, but I'm playing the percentages and taking the "new system no practice" side.   History suggests two of the three of these will hit.

Current Record:  0-0

Nurse the Hate: Basset Update and Surefire NFL Totals Winners

 

In an unexpected twist in looking for a big male basset hound puppy, I have committed to also getting a young female basset.  The basset does better in a pair in my experience, at least my last two did, so I suppose I am trying to recreate that magic.  An argument can be made that in addition to greatly overestimating my own ability at training a dog, I have now wildly overstepped and thrown my household into complete chaos by doubling down.  There is not much that demands more attention than a puppy, and by doubling that to two puppies, I have willfully made my life a living hell.  That is fair.  However, the die has been cast and we are moving ahead.  The house is an ideal basset setup, so I have misguided confidence that it will come together somehow.  

One of the dogs is located about two hours outside of Nashville.  I have a vision of driving that dog back after the upcoming Hillbilly Casino gig in September.  Who doesn't want to enjoy a 9 hour drive with a 10 week old dog barfing and puking the whole drive back?  Sugar has a long history of seeing dogs walking with their owners down the street and exclaiming "A dog in distress!  We need to help that dog!  Get it in the van!".  As the dog is generally happily walking with their owners, this isn't necessarily "dog rescue" so much as "pet kidnapping" that she is suggesting.  Still, her enthusiasm is there.  I could see conning her into being barfed on for a half day, but Hector and Leo would see right through that little scheme.  Still, if Leo spends the drive like he normally does (smokes weed/15 minutes of shit talk/sleep/repeat) and Hector can stream a good college football game, I don't think they'll care if Sugar gets barfed on.  I need to figure out a sales pitch on it.

There are two things I am focused on right now.  1.  Gaining the logistical upper hand on the incoming bassets before they turn the tables on me.  2.  Wildly gambling on NFL win totals.  I have spent much of the last month zeroing in on the NFL.  When looking at the upcoming season, the most important things to focus on in regards to win totals bets is identifying narratives that The Rubes have bought into that you disagree with wholeheartedly.  I think there are a few storylines that bear closer scruntity to see if they present moneymaking opportunities.  One of these that I like is in New Orleans.

Somehow last year it was decided that Derek Carr is terrible and you cannot win with Derek Carr.  Carr was castoff in shame and signed in New Orleans where it is now assumed he will be their "bridge quarterback" as they rebuild after the go-for-broke Drew Brees era.  I would counter this logic with it was the shit heel Raiders that couldn't win, not Carr.  It was just a year ago Carr led the dysfunctional Raiders into a playoff appearance and road loss to the eventual Super Bowl Bengals.  No shame there.  The Saints opened at 9 and are now sitting at 9.5.  I got on them at 9, but I'd give them a hard look at 9.5 wins.  Have you seen that schedule?  They went 7-10 with Andy Dalton last year, now a clear upgrade to Carr with Jameis Winston as a backup QB.  This year they have a third place schedule and manage to somehow not play a Top 10 QB (maybe Trevor Lawrence) all season.  They get to play Baker Mayfield/Bucs, Ridder/Falcons, Young/Panthers twice.  Titans/Texans/Bears/Colts/Rams once.  They are favored right now in 15 of their 17 games.  I like their chances of winning a soft NFC South.  Saints OVER.

For some reason there is a bunch of enthusiasm around Justin Fields.  I'm not sure why.  He's a great running QB that has not demonstrated that he can throw the ball in an NFL offense. While the Bears added some flashy offensive playmakers, they did nothing on defense and four of their five o-linemen are already hurt.  Chicago Bears fans want to believe.  They get duped every year.  Every single year they dump money onto their team and inflate the market.  Somehow the Bears are at 7.5 wins.  This team won three games last year.  They are going to improve by 5 games because they signed DJ Moore?  There is NO WAY the Bears are going 8-9 simply because they don't have a viable NFL quarterback.  Fields was 32nd in completion percentage, 49th in ypg, and took a league leading 55 sacks.  He runs extremely well and thus is a big time fantasy football guy, thus gets overrated in REAL football.  The Bears UNDER 7.5 wins.

So the Texans went 3-13-1, drafted high (again), and brought in yet another coach.  Their wins included the injury depleted Titans with Malik Willis, a tanking Colts in week 17, and one of those weird any-given-Sunday wins over the Jags.  They could have gone 1-15-1 and it would have been legit.  The Texans win total this season is 6.5.  I don't see it.  So, they are going to pick up 4 wins over last year because they're starting CJ Stroud?  Stroud has looked awful in the preseason, playing under center after all his previous experience was out of the shotgun.  He's going to look fucking terrible all September.  I feel bad for that guy already.  This Texans team looks like a team that is another year away from transitioning from "shitty" to "sorta shitty".   Somebody has to be one of the five worst teams of the league, so Arizona/Tampa needs company.  Texans UNDER 6.5 wins.