Sunday, October 13, 2024

The Jungle Gym and NFL Week 6

 


I was thinking the other day about the playground we had at school when I was in fourth grade.  There was a merry-go-round thing, a metal disc which spun with steel bars to hold onto as kids pushed it faster and faster.  If you spun off, you'd land on the safety of fresh blacktop asphalt as if you'd laid down a Harley at 55 mph.  We had a swing set which thankfully had wood chips underneath it, but was for some reason set up about three feet from that blacktop, which meant kids would routinely leap from the swings and fly off onto the pavement like they had been thrown from a Mustang convertible.  The crown jewel of the playground was a jungle gym, which was a half circle dome that seemed to be about 20 feet tall, but I'm guessing was still 10 feet.  I was nine years old, and I was scared shitless to climb up onto the top of it, a spot which routinely had the 3 or 4 daredevil kids holding court resplendent in the glory of laughing in the face of death.  

Why no adult thought it was an awful idea to build this thing and anchor it onto blacktop still blows my mind.  I mean, I was a kid and I was thinking "Who the fuck green lit this thing?".  I don't think 9 year olds are supposed to be thinking about insurance liabilities when looking at something that was assembled allegedly for fun, but that's the way it was.  Besides the tetherball area and foursquare scene, the only other point of interest was this ceramic fort that looked like Swiss Cheese, so we all called it "The Cheese".  Nobody went into The Cheese after an older teenage kid took a shit in it (believed to Ricky Shildnick, but unproven), so that was a no-fly zone.  

There was a kid named David that decided that his way to move up the social ladder was to climb the jungle gym peak.  Seriously, there were only four kids that routinely went up there because it was so fucking dangerous, but David for whatever reason thought this was his key to social status at Manchester Elementary.  There were two girls that always climbed it, so I think he was trying to impress them.  One became some sort of teenage gymnastics savant that later fucked her adult coach, which seemed to go well for all parties involved until her mother found out and then she recanted and the coach was sent off in disgrace.  (Men didn't go to prison for fucking 14 year olds then either due to societal norms or Pennsylvania state law, either reason being rather chilling).  The other girl became a helluva softball player, a "tomboy" in parlance of the times, which I think now we would easily identify as a lesbian who predictably was not impressed in the way David had hoped she would be upon his ascent on the jungle gym.  

Anyway, David discussed his plan one morning as we colored maps or whatever bullshit they had us doing, and it became quite a topic in Grade 4 as the news spread like wild fire.  I gotta hand it to him.  After lunch we had recess, and he went up to the top with a grim dedication I would rarely see later from adult men.  He knew he was pushing the envelope, but for whatever reason, he was going to see it through.  He made it.  But then, he fell.  When he fell head first onto the concrete, there was a certain grace to it.  His profile made a tragic image, like Icarus falling from the sun towards the earth.  I will always remember the dull thud sound his head made as it broke his fall.  I don't think many 9 year olds have seen that much blood.  It was a hell of a thing.  

That's just the way these things go sometimes.  Despite the best of intentions and planning, things just go south.  That's kind of what I see happening this week for a couple NFL teams.  There is a crazy trend that is hitting at 78% of backing teams that have been getting their ass kicked, only covering less than 20%, and then playing a winning team when they are 6+ points underdog.  The two teams that fit this bill are absolutely terrifying to back.  As I have always said, any bet that makes you immediately think "this is a huge mistake, I'm can't win this" is a great bet.  Do I want to be sitting on New England +7 and Carolina +6?  Of course not.  That's why they are rock solid bets!  

New England cannot score, is starting a rookie QB that will probably be out of football in 2 years, and generally is "bad at football".  However, Houston is not the monster team some thought they'd be and they have cluster injuries at WR.  This seems like a perfect letdown spot for Houston.  I'll take the points for New England +7 and hope they can do something on offense.  Carolina is really shitty, but Atlanta is horribly overrated.  3-2 Atlanta inched by Tampa and New Orleans these last two weeks, two average teams at best.  They lost to KC/Pitt and should have lost to Philly.  How are they laying 6 points to anyone on the road?  Carolina is 1-4 vs the spread.  There is no reason to think they cover this, but I'm thinking that they hang around at home in this one.  Carolina +6. 

October 22, 2023 is the last time the Eagles would have covered 8.5 points.  Look, the Browns are terrible because Deshaun Watson is like a Biblical plague that has nestled onto the franchise.  I don't see how he can lead the team to win this game.  I will tell you what though.  The Eagles aren't too good.  I am going to tease the Browns up to 14.5 and take the NY Giants +9.5 vs the Cincinnati Bengals.  This HAS TO BE a letdown spot for Cincinnati.  Look at their schedule...  They lose to Baltimore last week in a gut wrenching OT loss.  They keep scoring and can't win.  The Giants?  They might not be as bad as we think.  I think they might be an average football team.  I think the game vs Cincy can go either way.  Cleveland +14.4/Giants +9.5.

Current Record:  8-6  


Saturday, October 5, 2024

The Land Bridge and NFL Week 5


Here in Cleveland, we have one of those "rah-rah" civic pride tourist facing organizations that try to rope people into coming to Cleveland and promote a positive narrative about the city.  I received a social media post this week about "The Land" (something no one that lives here ever called Cleveland prior to paid media messaging).  It had a photo of some band I've never seen playing at The Happy Dog and urged people to come here because of the vital music scene, like it was New Orleans in 1922.  This is a perfect encapsulation of what Cleveland does.  It willingly embraces the idea of "wouldn't it be great if it was like this?" instead of "Well, this is what we've got, so let's focus on that.". 

Almost every major rock tour detours Cleveland now as they have found it more profitable to play Columbus and make the hardcore NE Ohio fans of the act drive there, a strict reversal of historical precedent.  The bands that do stop here are almost always on "off" nights as they played their "important" shows in Chicago/Detroit on the weekend.  "Hey wanna go see that show?  It's Sunday night at 9?  I guess the band is doing a one off after playing the Klusterfuck Festival last weekend.".  I get the feeling that the people that put that Rocking In The Land campaign together have never actually been to a show that hasn't taken place in a 20,000 seat venue, and imagine club shows are like what are shown in teen movies.  I understand how that ad campaign came together in that meeting room.  "Kayla had a great idea.  You know how we have the Rock Hall?  We should tell everyone about all the rock music we have here!  Like we have SO MUCH!  I went to Billy Joel last month, and didn't Jaden go see that one country guy at Blossom?  I think Mark the IT guy is in a band too!  We should go see him play sometime."

What Cleveland is especially good at though is building things that no one needs or wants, and then pretends during the entire process that it will "revitalize" downtown despite the obvious flaws in the plan.  About 15 years ago they spent $465M on The Medical Mart.  Listen to how stupid this idea was...  The plan was to have a permanent showroom for medical devices located in downtown Cleveland.  People in the health industry would then flock here to have conventions and presumably sashay over to the Medical Mart in a state of glee.  You might be surprised to learn that the medical community continued to have their conventions in Vegas, Miami, and Phoenix because THERE IS GOOD WEATHER THERE AND PEOPLE WANT TO GO ON A BUSINESS PAID VACATION, NOT WANDER DOWN THE DESOLATE WINTER STREETS OF WINDSWEPT CLEVELAND.  Alas, the Medical Mart failed.

Now the big idea brewing is The Land Bridge.  What is the Land Bridge you ask?  Why it's "The North Coast Connector that is a game-changer for Cleveland and will have a lasting impact on our city’s economic growth and development,” Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb said. “This land bridge will not only enhance connectivity between downtown and the lakefront but also create new opportunities for businesses, residents, and visitors alike."  Allow me to translate...  They want to spend $230M to make a park like bridge over Route 2 from the area known as Mall C over to "the Lakefront" (which means the football stadium and Harbor area).  Now, I just had a meeting with a guy over by Mall C.  There's nothing there but government buildings, a couple office towers and a Starbucks.  There is no reason for anyone not going to court to go anywhere near that area.  There is nothing there but paperwork and prison sentencing.  The good news is that if you do park there when they put The Land Bridge in, and let's say decide to walk your kid over to the Great Lakes Science Center, it's only a 25 minute walk.  Who doesn't want to trudge over a mile with a six year old as you get pelted by the wind in your face?

The real issue here is I missed out on the $3M grant for the "feasibility study".  The people that got paid that money obviously said, "Look, give us the $3M and we will tell you what you want to hear.".  They should have just given me the money.  I would have pocketed the cash and rolled in a month later.  "Hey, I looked into it, and it turns out that's a fucking stupid idea.  Why spend a quarter of a billion dollars to create a walkway from nowhere to a football stadium we use 8 times a year?  You think people are going to drive in from the suburbs to whip a frisbee around those spooky degenerates that will migrate over from Public Square?  It ain't gonna happen.  Let's drop that money into plowing that football stadium into the Lake.  Thank you.  Can I please have my check?"  It will happen anyway.  The best part will be whatever numbers get tossed around by the grifters that get this project going.  "We expect this to bring in $768M annually to the region as residents from across the globe will drive here to see the splendor of THE LAND BRIDGE!".

People see what they want to see I suppose.  That's sort of what I'm thinking when I look at the New York Jets.  I think there is a large group of people that have bought into the narrative of the Jets being a talent laden roster led by a monster Hall of Fame QB that was the missing piece of the puzzle.  When I look at the Jets I see a poorly run organization with a bad coach, overrated roster and old QB that doesn't want to get hit.  When I look at Minnesota I see a team that has three quality wins in a row, winning at Green Bay, trouncing Houston, and beating SF.  I look at the Jets and I see them losing to the Broncos despite the Broncos having minus seven yards passing at halftime.  Fuck the Jets. 

The Jets v Minnesota game is in London.  Minnesota is a well run team that probably strategized five different scenarios on how to best plan for the trip.  Some of the Jets staff might not know they were going to London until someone asked them if they remembered to bring their passport as they took an uber to the plane.  Look, I get it with Minnesota.  It's hard to buy-in on Sam Darnold winning games.  Remember, all I'm looking for on the Vikings side is for them to outcoach Bob Saleh, a guy that is in way over his head in New York.  Rodgers picked up a knee injury of some kind in that Broncos game, so he's not 100%.  This is one of those games where if the Jets lose in a big way, it's a "timber" moment where I think the season starts to get away from them and the local media attacks.  Those guys went all in on a Super Bowl push, and even to a casual observer this Jets team looks like The Same Old Jets.  Minnesota -2.5    

Until I see the Jacksonville Jaguars play well, I'm going to keep fading them.  This really feels like the game right before they sack the coach, bring in The New Guy, and win a couple games.  That situation is grim.  Doug Pederson seems like a horrible match for the culture there.  They signed Trevor Lawrence to a kazillion dollar extension despite the fact that he has fairly sucked for a couple years.  He's the Daniel Jones of the AFC.  The Jags already regret that Lawrence contract, but if they team sucks, you can't fire Lawrence.  Lawrence isn't good enough to win you games, but he can lose 'em for you.  If you're the Jags, why tie yourself down for the next half decade to a guy that doesn't seem to like football all that much?  I know the Jags have won ten straight from the Colts, but if Flacco starts, I'm on the Colts +2.5.    

This is a pretty basic handicap.  The San Francisco 49ers are one of the top 3 teams in the NFL.  The Arizona Cardinals blow.  The Cardinals killed the Rams when EVERYONE was hurt on the Rams, and they've been outplayed otherwise.  This has that "good team asserting dominance" vibe to it.  The 49ers are 2-2 after getting past their injuries.  Debo and Kittle are both back.  Trent Williams looks back in game shape.  I have some concern about the 49ers Super Bowl loss hangover, but to beat the 49ers the Cardinals need to throw downfield or get Murray running around out of the pocket, both of which will be hard to do.  49ers have a top offense.  Cards have a bottom 3 defense.  I don't like taking big favorites, but this is a division game at home.  The Niners need this game.  San Francisco -7.

Season Record:  6-5