Nurse the Hate: Hate Commercial Country and NFL Week 3

 

I shop at an "upscale" grocery store.  It's not like they're selling Romanee Conti and caviar in there.  No one is playing a harpsichord.  It's considered "upscale" in Cleveland because they have some humanely raised meat, import condiments, and granola not made by Kelloggs.  The other grocery stores near me have end aisle displays of Tuna Helper and a disproportionately large number of customers that use the grocery cart like a walker.  If you are braced on the handle of the cart for dear life as you trudge around the store winded buying soda, chips, and nothing resembling fresh produce, I'm suggesting you need to make some lifestyle changes.  If I stop into one of those stores because I need a quick item, I almost always leave depressed.  

I was doing my weekly shop in my normal store when suddenly I noticed something was off.  Then it hit me.  Someone had set the in store sound system to play popular country music.  I am not a fan of this genre because I find almost all of the songs insulting to my intelligence.  There is also often some sort of discomforting nationalism and celebration of "the simple life", which often equates to reveling in lack of education, income, and fealty to Christianity.  Most of these songs sound like the car ads for the marketing campaign of soft fascism and white nationalism that's the "Good Old Days with Folks Just Like You" Republican election deniers peddle.  

Like most Top 40 songs, I can't match the artist with the song because I find the music so uninteresting.  For example, I know who Brad Paisley is conceptually, but I don't know what any of his songs sound like.  Well, until today when I discovered his Ford Truck jingle of a song "This Is Country Music".  Check out these absolute shit lyrics...

   You're not supposed to say

The word cancer in a song

And tellin' folks Jesus is the answer

Can rub 'em wrong

It ain't hip to sing about tractors, trucks

Little towns and mama

Yeah that might be true

But this is country music and we do

Well, you like to drink a cold one

On the weekend and get a little loud

Do you wanna say I'm sorry or I love ya

But you don't know how?

Do you wish somebody had the nerve

To tell that stupid boss of yours

To shove it next time he yells at you?

Well, this is country music, and we do

So turn it on, turn it up and sing along

This is real, this is your life in a song

Yeah this is country music

Are you haunted by the echo of your mother

On the phone?

Cryin' as she tells you that

Your brother is not coming home?

And if there's anyone that still

Has pride and the memory of those

That died defending the old red, white and blue

This is country music and we do

So turn it on, turn it up and sing along

This is real, this is your life in a song

Just like a road that takes you home

Yeah this is right where you belong

This is country music

This is country music

So the point of the song is that your brother is going to get killed overseas in some undeclared war, but anyone that questions why he died is somehow unpatriotic.  Some people don't want to hear about Jesus, and this is clearly a minority point of view.  Good folks like us LOVE Jesus.  You've got a shitty job where your supervisor yells at you, a dead brother, an emotionally destroyed mother, somebody has cancer, but dammit you're an AMERICAN and THIS IS WHERE YOU BELONG!  Is this or is this not a car jingle for maintaining a bleak status quo?  

Then, at the Browns game, the "game presentation" had a feature where the crowd somehow voted for what song they wanted to sing along to in the Fourth Quarter as they watched the Browns historically collapse to the Jets.  Some piece of crap called "Chicken Fried" by Zac Brown Band somehow won, yet another song by a band I knew WHO they were but not what they sounded like.  

Raise your glasses for a toast

To a little bit of chicken fried

A cold beer on a Friday night

A pair of jeans that fit just right

And the radio up

Well I've seen the sunrise

See the love in my woman's eyes

Feel the touch of a precious child

And know a mother's love

I thank God for my life

And for the stars and stripes

May freedom forever fly, let it ring

Salute the ones who died

The ones that give their lives so we don't have to sacrifice

All the things we love

Like our chicken fried   

Who the hell is it that's trying to take these Good American's fried chicken?  Afghanis?  Iraqis?  The "Immigrant Hordes" of Central Americans that they're being told about on Fox news?  Hell, those people are more likely to end up cooking their fried chicken instead of requiring the sacrifice of that fried chicken.  Who do you think does all the work in America's restaurants?  When did all this bullshit music become the background soundtrack to America?  I don't want to hear these Christian Neo Fascist Brainwash nursery rhymes when I go out in public.  How did America become one giant Wal Mart?  I never thought I'd think of Huey Lewis as edgy background music.

I am going to spend this Sunday watching football listening to 60s psychedelia, Brit post punk like the Idols and Fontaines, King Khan, and some old Johnny Cash records like "Ride This Train".  My mind needs a thorough scrubbing.  I do feel a certain sense of "opportunity" on a few games this weekend, though I hope not because my brain has been twisted by this shit commercial country.  Week 3 can be quite confusing.  For example, do I believe Green Bay is the team that looked awful in losing to the Vikings, or are they the team that dominated the Bears?  I'm leaning towards the latter as Rodgers did ayahuasca and blew his mind this summer instead of working with his receivers.  Sunday the Packers play a Tampa team that has 9 of 11 starters on offense on the injury report.  Tampa's left tackle is making his first NFL appearance.  All three Tampa receivers are out, and the team signed Cole Beasley off the street to play tomorrow.  Brady has a hurt finger on this throwing hand.  This is Green Bay versus the Tampa Bucs laundry, not the Bucs.  Also, teams that play their first two games on the road (like Tampa) are 38% ATS in their first home game.  Green Bay +1       

Buffalo looks unbeatable.  There has not been any evidence that any team in the league is even able to play them close much less beat them.  Buffalo goes to Miami on Sunday, a team that pulled one out of their ass last weekend versus Baltimore.  Buffalo lost their All Pro safety Micah Hyde for the season last week, and are going to try to cover the Dolphins terrifyingly fast receivers with two rookie cornerbacks.  I know Buffalo looks great, but this is the NFL and playoff caliber teams are razor close.  To win, you have to make bets that are uncomfortable.  This is uncomfortable.  I'll take Miami at home with points.   I love these early season games where teams from the North get to play in humidity in South Florida at 1pm.  Miami +4.5

Seattle isn't very good.  That week one win over Denver was basically their Super Bowl.  Lost in the excitement of the win was that Seattle didn't cross midfield in the second half.  They have about half as many yards as their opponents and average 1.2 yards less per play.  That high profile win over Denver has The Public thinking Seattle is better than they are.  Atlanta on the other hand, is better than perception.  They are 0-2 with close losses to New Orleans and the Rams.  No shame there.  Look, neither of these teams are that good.  I'm certainly not going to watch this game, but I'm betting on it.  Atlanta is better than Seattle, and they have to win somewhere.  Atlanta money line.

Season record: 3-4 

Nurse the Hate NFL Week 2 and My New Solar Rollerz

 

I was driving back from an optometrist appointment yesterday.  I had been hoping to just call him on the phone, order the contacts and then pick them up a few days later.  In the back of my mind, I knew that would be impossible.  Any medical service in the United States comes with the surcharge of the "office visit".  I braced myself as I made the call.  "Do you know when you were here last?"  I decide not to lie so much as float out what I would call a "hopeful projection" about the date of my last visit.  "About a year ago?"  After a quick check of the records, it was revealed my last exam had taken place during the Ford Administration.  I was on the hook.  "Yeah... Thursday at 4p is fine."

We all have minor accomplishments that we are proud of that don't merit much more response in others except maybe a "Really?  Wow." and then it's forgotten.  I am talking about things like two of my minor superpowers.  For example, if I put something in the oven and set a timer, I don't ever check the timer or think about it, I will magically know when it's time.  I can be sprawled out reading the Nw York Times on a Sunday having put something in the oven, be deep in an article, and have it pop in my head "it's ready".  When I go to the oven, there will be less than 15 seconds on the timer.   See?  It's a response of "Oh?  That's weird." and that's about it.  Superman can fly around, and I can do that.

My other great power is that I have had the exact same prescription for my contacts since I first got them when I was 15.  I have the exact same "not that bad" eyesight that I had when I failed the State of Pennsylvania eye exam to get my learner's permit.  The good news is that I eventually got contacts, passed the eye exam, got my learner's permit, and later modified my birthdate on the permit to allow me to buy beer from takeout at seedy Erie PA bars as a baby faced 17 year old.  It was a happy ending.  However, I knew this current eye exam was a complete waste of time, and so did the doctor, but $125 is $125 and he was going to give me that goddamn exam.     

I received the eye drops that open up your pupils like you're on an acid bender.  Various measurement devices and instruments were used to determine that my eyes were exactly the same.  New contacts would be in on Tuesday.  I climbed into my car shielding my eyes from the sun like someone emerging from a mine cave-in after a week of clawing at the soil like a mole.  I had been given the "solar rollerz" you see in the photo above, launched myself into rush hour traffic driving aggressively and thinking about this week's slate of NFL games.

I think that The Public overreacts to each game, and no greater overreaction exists than from Preseason Hype to Post Game 1.  Months are spent overanalyzing each team and then it all gets thrown out the window because somebody fumbles twice.  Green Bay, many people's Super Bowl pick, suddenly sucks because they lost on the road at Minnesota.  Chicago, expected to be the worst team in the NFL, suddenly deserves respect because they beat San Francisco in the rain despite Fields throwing eight (8) completions.  Green Bay is going to beat Chicago.  They aren't going to be 0-2 and Chicago 2-0 after Week 2.  No fucking way.  I want to tie them into a parlay with Minnesota.  I think if Minnesota beat Green Bay soundly, it doesn't mean Green Bay sucks.  I think it means Minnesota is good.   The Vikings play the Eagles, who have after one week of not covering versus the Lions have been christened potential NFC champs.  I am going to bet Green Bay, Minnesota, and a Green Bay/Minnesota money line parlay.    

I'm taking the Houston Texans +10 at Denver.  I was not impressed by what I saw from Denver last week in Seattle.  I am of the understanding that this Shanahan theory offense in Denver is complicated, and there is a learning curve on it.  I also think Wilson is in decline.  Do I think the Texans are good?  God no.  But we are talking about a Denver offense that had trouble with the Seahawks after losing Mike Adams, so all we need is Houston to keep it within single digits.  Houston +10.

The Colts were humiliated when they lost at Jacksonville last year and missed the playoffs.  Every sports talk show pointed out how poorly the Colts have played against the Jags for the last few years, which boggles the imagination because the Jags are like a Florida Cracker version of The Jets.  When I watch those Jaguar home games I think about how bleak Jacksonville is and how that stadium must be a great place to get chlamydia.  You ever look at that truck stop trash floating around in that end zone pool?  It makes Kalahari look ritzy.  Here's the choice... Take the superior team that has the game circled on the schedule and give a field goal, or bet on Trevor Lawrence.  If this was Clemson v Boston College, I'm on Lawrence.  It's not.  It's the Colts.  Indianapolis -3.

Season Record:  1-1      

Nurse the Hate: Discussing Climate Change and NFL 2022 Week 1

 

I was arguing with some strangers online about the existence of climate change, which is both a waste of time and highly aggravating.  I have spent the last year fairly immersed in agricultural practices due to this insane MW quest I've undertaken.  The result is I know more about climate and farming than a man that can barely keep a small patch of grass and some evergreen trees alive should know.  Here's what I have learned.  If you own a family business growing grapes in France or Australia, you don't care about the battles of American politics.  The only thing these people care about is bringing in a crop.  Their only position on climate change is "how can I prevent crop loss and losing my house".  

If someone tries to suggest that climate change is a topic of debate, ask them why they think that in the last 700 years of harvest records in Burgundy, 18 of the last 20 have been the earliest harvests on record.  You could also discuss why England can suddenly ripen grapes and French Champagne producers have been buying up large swaths of land in Southern England.  Invasive insects are traveling further north.  California is running out of water.  The globe is full of brand new farming problems that have suddenly appeared where people have done things the same way for centuries.  Well, until now...

So I'm arguing with a big group of Fox News viewers who are parroting back all the same talking points that have been placed by the $2.1 trillion (with a T) fossil fuel industry.  The problem is that Fox News people only believe Fox News, and discard any information that doesn't confirm their beliefs.  For example, NASA notes on their website that 97% of all currently publishing climate scientists are in agreement on the existence of man-made climate change due to the greenhouse gas effect.  That's essentially everyone that is an expert in that field.  The Fox News people were adamant that "scientists" don't know anything and climate change is some sort of grift created by Al Gore and AOC.  It was only 68 degrees yesterday, therefore climate change is some sort of nefarious liberal plot.  It's hard to follow the logic path.

That Fox News argument is basically taking the position that gravity doesn't exist because you saw a balloon float.  "Well Mr. Smarty Pants if this so-called gravity of yours is a real thing, then why did my son's balloon float away?  Hmmm?  And why is that kite flying over there?  Gravity is just a way "they" are trying to control our Freedoms!".  It's exasperating.  I mean, what are you going to do?  There's a lot of shit stupid people out there.     

I make this point to focus on the task at hand, betting on NFL Football.  The NFL betting market has many of these false narratives chirping away that The Rubes parrot back and forth to themselves.  These narratives impact the gambling lines.  Why get mad at The Rubes when they can help make you money?  Here's an example...  The Rubes all think Carson Wentz is horrible and can only fail.  Please note, I DO NOT think Carson Wentz is a great QB.  He must rub people the wrong way, because they couldn't get rid of him fast enough in Philly or Indianapolis.  Wentz must be the guy in the office no one wants to invite to Taco Tuesday.  Sure, Wentz choked in a must win game in the final week of the season that allowed the Colts to miss the Playoffs.  That certainly didn't help.  That has led to his current rap as a shit QB that can't play.  He's not awful though, and that's why Washington signed him on the cheap.  

This week Washington, who I expect to be "OK", plays Jacksonville, who won three games last year and has the worst record in football two years running.  Jacksonville exists so people don't talk about how crappy the Jets are.  Yet, Washington is -2.5 at home against Jacksonville this Sunday.  For some reason, the narrative is Jacksonville is going to be much better this year because Urban Myer is gone (which will have to help) and Trevor Lawrence is a can't miss NFL QB.  Meanwhile Washington is doomed because Wentz is terrible.  Really?  2021 stats:  Lawrence 12 TDs  17 INTS and 28th in QBR for a team that had nothing but garbage time stat padding games.  Wentz:  27 TDs 7 INTS and 9th in QBR.  So I get the better team with an improved QB from last year and only have to give the Jags 2.5?  Washington -2.5

Another big narrative is that the Dolphins are going to be really good because they signed Tyreek Hill.  Tua is going to blossom into a big time quarterback because of all these weapons on offense.  Look out!  Here come the Dolphins!  If you look at the moves the team made, they shuffled the receiving corps up and got a new coach/OC/DC.  They are basically the same team that missed the playoffs in 2021 and got fined because of player tampering.  They look like one of the "they could be pretty good, but I dunno" teams, but they seem like sad sacks that haven't won shit since Larry Csonka carried Don Shula and his polyester slacks off the field in triumph in 1972.  

Here's what I see.  In week one the Dolphins host the Patriots.  New England has had problems winning in Miami.  It's a division game, so it's a priority.  The Hoodie does what he always does.  He finds a way to get an edge.  The Hoodie shut down training camp and moved the team to Miami for Training Camp II to get used to the heat and humidity.  Miami gets to play their first game with a brand new head coach, a brand new playcaller, and a brand new defensive coordinator.  They get to match wits with the best coach ever, the guy who's teams are #1 against the spread.  New coaches/offensive coordinators are 9-21 ATS in their opening games.  That's against everyone.  You want to bet that trend with a splashy receiver signing or take Belichick +3.5?  New England +3.5

Nurse the Hate: 2022 NFL Win Totals

 

There is agreement in America right now about very few things.  It is said there are Two Americas.  People live in two completely different realities despite receiving the same basic information.  Events are perceived differently, despite people viewing the same things happening in real time.  I was at an insurance agency the other day in a suburban strip plaza.  The two guys that owned the business were walking around the joint with .45 pistols in holsters like they were cowboys.  I have no idea why they thought a gunfight was going to break out in their strip plaza or why they would be able to save the day.  The one guy was about 125 pounds overweight and his is early 60s.  I don't think he could catch a softly tossed ball much less have the hand/eye to engage in a firefight with a pistol.  When we started talking I told them about how to make an advertising schedule work.  I told them "if you repeat anything enough times, it becomes the truth.".  One of the two guys said "You hit it on the head right there.  That's what's wrong with this country.".  

Now, I think he and I agreed that some folks out there believe in some wild falsehoods and complete lies.  I think where we might diverge is on exactly what "The Truth" is on some things.  It's hard to explain it.  Is it strictly social media?  Is it following questionable narratives on whatever media you consume?  Is half the country a victim of misinformation plots?  I'm really not sure.  However, we all need to admit that there are two different worlds right now.  You're on one side or the other.  You either A) think the New York Jets "won" the draft and have become contenders or B) think like I do that the Jets will always be the Jets and will fail.

I recently heard a very simple, yet compelling way to bet NFL win totals.  If a team has a good quarterback and a good coach, bet the over.  A bad quarterback and bad coach, bet the under.  The Jets really don't have things going their way.  Last year's #2 pick in the draft, Zach Wilson spent the summer (allegedly) having sex with his Mom's friends and then tearing his knee when he was unable to fall down correctly.  It probably won't matter as he totally sucks.  Now the Jets will run completely out of gas Joe Flacco out there for a bit until they inevitably run Wilson back out to play too early from the torn miniscus.   It's a nightmare scenario of having to play a shitty top draft pick you missed on while he's hurt.  The Jets also lost their left tackle for the season in training camp, so they reshuffled their o-line.  The Jets signed a 37 year old lineman to play left tackle and sent Fant back to play right tackle.  Yeah...  I'm sure everything will be fine.  Jets Under 6. 

I got on the Browns UNDER 9.5 wins when some fools believed that Watson was going to escape punishment from the league and trot out to play football n Week 1.  Getting beyond the fact Watson is a sex predator and probably a sociopath, he is good at football.  His replacement, Jacoby Brissett, is not.  Brissett is a good QB to have to play a couple games to keep the team on the rails.  He has not shown the ability to win as a consistent starter.  Talk radio hosts in Cleveland are talking about the team going 7-4 or 6-5 until Watson comes back for Week 12.  I see them at 3-8 or 4-7.  It's hard to lose money betting on the ultimate failure of the Browns and Jets.  Browns UNDER 9.5.

Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.  Good quarterback and good coach.  The last four years the Chiefs have won 12, 14, 12 and 12.  The NFL has made the move away from parity into having a few teams that are juggernauts who win 12+ games each season, and some that are absolutely awful.  The consistent thing on these winning organizations is the good coach/good QB combo.  Kansas City has that.  You know who else has that?  The Rams.  They are sitting at 10.5 wins with this odd "Super Bowl Hangover" myth narrative out there.  22 of the last 26 Super Bowl teams posted double digit win totals the following year after the Super Bowl.  Are the Stafford/McVay led Rams suddenly going to go 10-7 despite the other teams in their division all having serious questions at QB?  Don't be afraid of the big win total numbers.  There are 17 games now.  Good teams find a way to win.  Chiefs OVER 10.5 and Rams OVER 10.5.